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its-a-throw-away_ t1_ja82xty wrote

Coin toss is an easier example. The coin always has a 50 percent probability that it will land heads or tails on any individual toss.

But when you observe how often a coin will land heads N number of times in a row, we see that as N increases, the probability of success decreases. This is because as you toss coins, each toss brings with it the collective probabilities from all previous tosses.

So while each toss always has a fifty/fifty chance of landing heads, trying to predict how often a particular number of heads in a row will occur depends on how many coins you intend to toss, and the probability that each toss will land on a particular side.

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Lebasquiat t1_ja8x08m wrote

I've always understood it better with a coin toss. The odds of getting heads 9 times in a row then getting tales on the 10th flip is the exact same as getting heads 9 times in a row then getting heads again on the 10th flip.

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