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Isn't it better to do a histogram or use the actual count for Y-axis, since population will keep varying and declining for various reasons. Would it be different from deaths per 100k metric?

I'm not sure I'm following. The chart already depicts deaths per 100k people, so that variability in population does not affect the reading of the data.

I think he asks whether it'll be better to just give the number of deaths outright instead of based on 100k that would flactuate with time

What I was trying to get at is that, at first glance it seems like a consistent normalized way to depict the comparison. Let's say you have a list of OD deaths(d) and a list of populations(p) over the years. You're using d/p for each year, right? but while d seems like an independent variable, the p also accounts for a corrected value due to natural deaths, gun violence, disease, other substance abuse etc., So if you had 2 subsequent years with the same number of people dying of Opioid overdose, but the population changed drastically with larger deaths or more births, the d/p changes. These 2 need not be balanced all the years and especially during the pandemic. Just using regular counts won't be affected by variability of population. if one year the (d,p) is (50,300) and next it is (45,200), has it increased or decreased per 10 people? Even though deaths decreased by 5, the deaths per 10 people are 1.6 and then 2.25, which means it increased a lot. So which way are you doing it and why not just show actual counts of it on the y scale instead? why would that give any wrong info?

I'm glad we are wining the war in drugs.

The heroin line spikes right around the time I was in high school and that shit was everywhere. A lot of kids from my class have overdosed since then. Crazy how that shit gets into schools.

If you think that is bad, you should look at 2020 through today.

It's actually really easy to win this war on drugs: just give them drugs until all Opioid users are dead.

/s

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Heroin must feel like such a failure.

My dad is part of this statistic. 2018. RIP <3

The financial crises since 2008 have killed a lot of people…

…virtually no one in jail in the US.

Coincides with the Mexican cartel shift to fentanyl and opiate production

This must be false because Trump said he was going to fix it.

The war on drugs ended a long time ago. What we need is a new one. Mexican cartels should be classified as foreign terrorist organizations and the US military should kill every last one of them. The statistics clearly show these cartels are 1000x as dangerous as all the stupid Muslim groups we waste all of our effort on currently. Drug trafficking should carry the death penalty.

So the reason you don’t “just show counts” is precisely because of fluctuations in the denominator (the population). Deaths per 100,000 standardizes by the population so let’s make a fake and sort of exaggerated example. I’d say one year there are 50,000 deaths among a population of 100,000 the deaths per 100k estimate is of course 50,000 deaths per 100,000. Now let’s imagine the population double somehow by the next year and this time 100,000 people died. The deaths per 100,000 estimate comes out to…50,000 deaths per 100,000. So this tells us that the rate of overdose deaths did not change between the two years despite the populations changing dramatically. This is why counts themselves are not an informative statistic unless it’s amongst a stable population. Counts would be more useful if it was say the number of ED visits for overdose for a hospital and that hospital was trying to measure the volume of patients they see in a given period of time. Even then they would likely be just as if not more interested in the percentage of all ed visits were for overdoses.

You seem to be confused about deaths due to other causes somehow impacting the denominator, I think? The population is of course whoever was alive in that year so I don’t see how more births or more deaths is relevant because for deaths they obviously won’t be included in the population for the following year and births don’t really change dramatically enough to have great enough of an impact on the denominator but either way babies can still die from an overdose, it’s tragically sad but it does happen, so they should be included in the denominator.

This is a perfectly appropriate graph and I made several very similar to this as part of my thesis research on the opioid crisis.

I find it interesting how common opioid deaths drop as heroin deaths spike in 2011.... after years of increasing "common opioid" deaths. Id guess people were switching over to heroin.

Well at least fentanyl gave us a hero

also simply stop pumping people full of Narcan whenever they OD..

So it looks like it went from ~3 people per 100k died from these three causes in 1999, to ~19 people per 100k in 2018. Not great!

Your solution is death?

I'm sure there's some very interesting correlative data involving economic and social hopelessness that exist.

"we should let people die." genius take.

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I wonder what the charts look like up to today? I feel like there would be a significant spike in 2020

Y'know, all those people who died of COVID no longer use drugs. That's a win in my book.

edit: /s, because it seems like people didn't realize that?

Fentanyl-like deaths per Capita is about ready to pass gun deaths per Capita.

People like this don't deserve an answer. I hope when he or his kids are stuck in the spiral of drugs, that he gets someone much more sympathetic than he clearly is, to save them.

Kinda harsh, but itll thin the herd. 🤷🏼‍♂️

The usual pathway is prescription opiods (oxycodone, hydrocodone, etc.) to heroin nasally, then often IV and/or to fentanyl though these days all the illicit stuff is fentanyl in various forms anyways, and passed off as something else.

It's when they started cracking down on pharmaceuticals. As it turns out, it's a lot easier to not accidentally kill yourself when all the doses are the same, which is obviously not the case for illicit heroin (it could be with a safe supply initiative though*). This crisis has been made this deadly, make no mistake.

I think it was 2013 that 200% more Americans admitted to using heroin than the year before, and also the year the started taking them off the shelves in stores.

E: Anyone who wants narcan please click here (US only though I think; apologies)

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Thank you China and Purdue Pharmaceutical/The Sackler family.

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20%20Fentanyl%20Flow%20in%20the%20United%20States_0.pdf

Tired of winning

It's odd. I was in Hs in the later 1980s. Heroin was unheard of. It was weed and alcohol. In the same school decades later, opioids became a problem.

I'm sorry bro... Best wishes to you and your family.

Nah they are making bad jokes. They don't believe this but since they probably aren't personally affected by this issue don't care enough not to offend others.

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Ill never forget the first time I heard of Fentanyl, in 2014 right before I had a lung surgery. Felt a lot like morphine but a little different. Doctor told me how powerful it was, now its the most evil substance on the market

Deaths from overdose have skyrocketed. It's unreal.

I wonder how many of those were suicides rather than true ODs.

You would be correct. > The number of preventable deaths in the United States increased 16.1% in 2020 to 200,955, an all-time high. A 34.4% increase in drug overdose deaths helped drive this record high. A total of 83,558 people died from drug overdoses in 2020, also an all-time high.

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-topics/drugoverdoses/

Are you ok? Even if you were kidding your comment shows a serious lack of empathy for other people. Everyone who has OD’d has loved ones who hope beyond anything that they will get clean eventually.
I think you’re a kinder person than this, I really do.

Without fail, every time there is a thread on substance use there's always people who say shit akin to "Ah, they did it to themselves, they deserve it, etc."

Funny how when we talk about something like heart disease you don't see people saying "Ah, they could just put down the big macs"

It feels great. I think that’s the problem.

Funny how this recent empathy for opiate users came about only when white suburbanites started dying. Prior to that it was seen as an inner city problem and users were worthless scum of the earth. I think what you are observing is the old attitudes being held over in our new more compassionate approach.

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And it has continued to skyrocket since 2018, especially from 2020 through today.

Looks like heroin and common opioids deaths are on the decline. Let’s give ourselves a pat on the back for this tremendous achievement

Purdue reformulated oxy in 2010. It was supposed to make it harder to abuse. The rise seems to start right then.

I mentioned this in another comment. I believe it is due Purdue reformulating oxy in 2010. The supplies of the old formula ran out and they had to turn somewhere.

Cdc published new 2022 stats on opiates, it's around 30 per 100,000. It's overtaken diabetes, liver disease and kidney disease. I think it's underneath alzheimers and stroke is ~38 per 100k in 2021

Deschedule and sell controlled doses at Walgreens OTC. Tell your friends!

Edit woops its 2021

In 2021, 106,699 drug overdose deaths occurred, resulting in an age-adjusted rate of 32.4 per 100,000 standard population in the United States.

Opiates are like 22 per 100 000, so, demoted down below diabetes https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db457.htm

And overall deaths https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/images/databriefs/451-500/db456-fig4.png

This one seems to include current data on overdose deaths https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm

got a link?

EDIT:Holy shit this graph is tame. OP should have added the years until 2022, as in my opinion these are the most important ones. This graph doesn't really show the scale of the opioid crysis. Now i get why i always hear about an opioide crysis in the US.

One minor complaint: The only thing mentioning the US is actually the title of the post - nowhere on the actual chart is there any mention.

Good point, thanks!

I mean, China's just paying us back for the 1800s.

Uh, they do actually say that about the big Macs.

Just a misleading title. It wasn't a war to stop drugs, it was a war to eliminate competition

Don’t show this to the “our open borders have been letting drugs into our country!” People

Fetanyl and heroin been killing like it’s their job for a decade

I went to school 2006 to 2010 and prescription opioids were huge. Shortly after that is when people started taking heroin as they sort of made it gradually harder to get the prescription stuff. Then obviously these last years it's all turned to fent. I'm actually surprised heroin and "common opiates" (whatever than means) haven't dropped more with the recent fentanyl scourge. I have met like 4 people in the last 2 months that died and were brought back to life from naloxone and continued using the shit. One snorted a whole 50 bag he thought was cocaine and ended up ODing in a parking lot. That guy is definitely not a fan, the rest were IV junkies.

This is reddit. They actually comment that too.

I heard that if you say it's name three times in a mirror... you overdose!

Perdue somehow convinced FDA their pills won’t be crushed - then they advertised it as “less addictive” (???) they should all be in prison

Alcohol was at 13.1 (2020)

Wyoming topped that list with 35.6

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/alcohol-induced-death-rate-per-100000-population/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

I dont think that would stop it because there are always new people gettinf addicted.

Personally I think the best way is legalising it and deregulating to the point its cheaper than prohibited heroin. Have it bought through pharmacies.

I think there would be a drop in young users and hopefully you could stamp it out. It would probably become something like tobacco.

Of course thats a super risky policy so nobody would give it a go.

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That’s very interesting. And also very sad.

It’s at 34 in 21 and likely even higher last year.

Beyond stuff like liver disease.

I remember in the early 90s in so cal when meth came in and people at high school started tweaking. Didn’t see much heroin except with some private school rich kids. Fentanyl, glad that wasn’t around. That’s straight death.

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Legalize and regulate recreational drugs

How long is society going to pretend there aren't root causes to all these problems in America?

Skyrocketing Income inequality
No healthcare/Mental Health access
Dysfunctional hateful government
Prison capital of the world
Calls people heroes as they sacrifice them to the economy god
Police are a sadistic joke with no legal obligation to save anyone
Stagnant wages yet abusive work conditions
The media is owned by the elite who control the narrative and throw gas on the fire
Burning the world down to avoid confronting climate change

But sure lets just do a war on drugs because DRUGS are the problem.
Lets just ban all guns because GUNS are the problem.

When you look at the data for drug abuse and mass shootings yearly you see there's an undeniable trend and I know you know what I mean. Societal decline traces America's decline.

Look at America's problems and tell me only a psychopath would be angry. Tell me only a junkie would use drugs to escape this madness.

This never gets better until we stop searching for easy scapegoats and address the elephant in the room.

You will never solve sorrow and rage by blaming drugs and guns.

It did make it harder to abuse oxy…which is why many people switched to heroin.

If you haven’t already, do yourself a favor and read “Empire of Pain”. It’s the best book I’ve read in many years. Does make your blood boil though…

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Hang the Sackler Family Portraits right next to Charles Manson and Ted Bundy

>do yourself a favor and read “Empire of Pain”

I have watched several docs and read a few short articles on it but not this book. I will check it out thank you very much!

Im sorry homeboy / homegirl

What is the age adjusted rate referring to?

Crack users are actually significantly more likely die to homicide or AIDS than overdose. Meth, on the other hand, has a large amount of overdose deaths.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17063219/ https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20210923/us-meth-overdose-deaths-tripled-in-recent-years

Yeah. I only know because I was analyzing CDC mortality data the other day and it jumped out at me.

This is pretty tame when you look at current deaths. I know my region in Nothern Ontario averages a fatal overdose every 3 days, then you have places like Vancouver where it's much worse. The entire province of BC as of 2017 was over 20 deaths per 100k population.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/healthy-living/national-report-apparent-opioid-related-deaths-released-march-2018.html

It’s more than harsh, it’s beyond ignorant.

Good thing the government put a stop to opioid prescriptions in 2014. Really did a lot of good

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"Empire of Pain" was well-written, with more twists and turns than the average piece of fiction. It was much more thorough than the various series and documentaries.

Giving people external substances that their body will depend on in the name of "harm reduction". Its an interesting playbook they can use. Its happening again right now with other pharmaceuticals, but ones social credit can withstand calling it out.

A war on the opposing drugs

Ignorant is trying to beat Darwinism.

Oh yeah, data is really really beautiful.

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There is more than one meaning for "fix."

You add the 3 together and it's around 20. Nationwide. High use areas it would be much higher than that.

Opioid overdose is now the leading cause of death between 18-45 y/o for the first time in history.

We’re talking all demographics, all ethnicities, across all classes.

My region is at almost 80 deaths per 100k.

Thunder Bay district's overdose rate was 78.8 per 100,000 people in 2021. That's four times the provincial rate of 19.2 per 100,000 people and the highest per capita in Ontario

And enough fentanyl is coming over the border with Mexico every year to kill every American and Canadian

You should also add the time points that various prescription opioids were introduced to the market 👀

Hang the Sackler Family Portraits right next to Charles Manson and Ted Bundy.

Common opiates is a nice way of saying pills

When Obama gave his ISIS speech back in the 10s outlining his use of force policies, I definitely thought they should apply them to the drug war at the border. I am against intervening in foreign countries...but if you are gonna do it anyway, do it to the greatest extent possible. Drone strike some Cartel mountain hideouts and mansions too

Thank you for just showing a line graph and not doing this as a video.

Nothing we can rly do to stop people from killing themselves. The people who are likely to OD are also the ones that actively ignore all advice on the dangers of OD

Wow, that's a horrible take. "Let em die." As an alcoholic who's been active in recovery communities for years, I can tell you with complete certainty that we can do a lot to help addicts. So miss me on your next bit of social Darwinism & work on developing a sense of compassion.

I wanna know but I don’t wanna know anymore bad things.

If they legalized and sold it in a controlled manner, with a set amount you can have (much like marijuana), deaths would go down tremendously.

Not only deaths, but $$$ for crime lords, human trafficking, all that evil shit. Then the amount of money saved by taxpayers on hospitals and rehabs. This doesn’t include the revenue generated by legalization which is more than enough to fund rehab services and do good for local communities with funding.

Keeping it illegal does nothing. Stops no one. It’s not like anyone who wants to use OPIODS doesn’t because it’s illegal. In fact much of the problem such as deaths is caused specifically from it being illegal (lowered tolerance deaths once out of dope for a short while).

I’m not suggesting anyone do heroin. I’m just stating that keeping it illegal is causing a lot of problems and isn’t solving the entire purpose of it being illegal.

>You will never solve sorrow and rage by blaming drugs and guns.

But fixing societies problems means that people won't profit as much and we cannot have that now can we? /s

Honestly, I have been saying for years now that the issue that the USA has regarding guns and crime is down to social inequity. The less you have the more likely you are to risk it all to get more (i.e. purely risk versus reward). The lower the social status of your family growing up the more likely you are to have mental health issues that push you towards drug use to escape it all - happy well adjusted people are rarely self-destructive.

> deaths would go down tremendously.

While I'm in favor of broad decriminalization/legalization/policy-reform for all drugs, I'm not 100% sold on this claim for opiates. Your claim could be correct, but historically opiates have uniquely ravaged whole societies. The book "Ten Drugs" talks about 2000 year-old medical description of how useful opiates can be, noting 'it is hard to get patients to discontinue use'. The book also notes the cycle of opium use in history, swinging from 'this time it'll be safer' to 'way to many people are addicts now' (See Laudanum; OxyContin).

Current policy has definitely incentivized Fentanyl trade and made billions for murderous cartels. Safe-use areas with government provided heroine were helpful in combating the Swiss heroine crisis in the 1990's. However the additive potential of opiates is up there with drug nicotine, only much more destructive.

> [opiates kill around] 30 per 100,000 people)

Also for reference: the murder rate is ~5 per 100k, suicide is ~11 per 100k. The opiate epidemic is terrifying.

That improves my post. Although I am fiercly against death penalty, we could consider an exception here. (and for whoever stole my daughters bicycle, too)

Ignorant is thinking darwinism is applicable to human society

There would certainly need to be education about opioids.

But just a reminder, they were legal throughout most of history. Recently, from the civil war until 1920’s era (some laws in the teens and others later) we had morphine, heroin, and injections. Laudanum was sold at every store. And we had issues but it wasn’t the mass destruction that society fears.

Honestly the best way to keep people off drugs is economic security.

I understand your apathy towards the legalization. I just believe it’s the best course forward. There is no stopping fentanyl and the next chemical to come out. There are a few new RC’s that will be most likely be hitting hard in a few years that I’m troubled by as well.

No way to keep chemicals from poorer countries or areas to produce and smuggle in. We just can’t stop it. Fentanyl is only a thing now. What happens when the next more euphoric and less deadly one comes?

Oh I'm not apathetic about legalization at all. Morally, logically, and economically some kind of radical departure form the status quo is long overdue. The worst side effects of many criminalized drugs is being forced into a cage for days, weeks, or possibly the rest of your life. This has wrought nothing except decades of unconscionable human misery, all for nothing. I don't think most people recognize just how awful current policy is.

The once-great History Channel did a series called 'Illegal Drugs and How They Got That Way'. Its prob on youtube now. Its great. I just wanted to point out that each drug has its own logic for regulation, and cultural differences in drug use need to be accounted for.

>Hs in the later 1980s. Heroin was unheard of.

Heroin has been a popular drug in the US since the 1800s. The heroin overdose spike in the 2010 is from synthetic opioids. Synthetic opioids like fent weren't being pulled into there own column until 2014 and I don't believe it was in full until later.

The CDC isn't classifying data in a way people are using it. The groups are non exclusive. If you OD while on heroin, fent and vicodin you land in all 3 groups.

https://www.cdc.gov/opioids/data/analysis-resources.html

>Given the surge in availability of IMF starting in 2013, the CDC Injury Center began analyzing synthetic opioids (other than methadone) separately from other prescription opioids for 2014 mortality data. This analysis provides a more detailed understanding of the increase in different categories of opioid deaths.

Was pretty stable until the 2nd Obama term. Open borders, ending of stricter drug laws, and an abandonment of any sort of moral values.

A big part of why I bring up the guns is that if we pacify society we become that much further away from being able to solve the root issues.

Disarmament in most european countries, Australia, Canada etc was done in a certain way.

They got universal healthcare first, they got groundwork for a civilized society first and then disarmed later. I think that's an important distinction to make.

But perception is power is important when it comes to bringing people to the negotiation table. People who are powerless don't get negotiations they get steamrolled.

Use of heroin in my high school was unheard of. We knew what it was.

I wonder what the statistics are on death from heroin or fent IV?

I don’t remember the last time, if ever, I’ve heard of overdose from hydrocodone or oxycodone. I know it’s possible but would take a lot.

Not counting things like mixing with alcohol and Xanax either. Mix oxy with a bottle of vodka and Xanax and it’s extremely dangerous.

I know the numbers exist. I’m just curious what the actual deaths are specifically from. I’d imagine fent and heroin are 90%+ of those deaths and I bet fent is the much higher percent in that.

I’d say looking at death rates in the 90’s would give a good idea of heroin death but again, to remove cross drug use numbers. And then what is IV vs smoking.

I may actually try and compile some data because I am honestly curious.