Source: Pro Football Reference and ESPN

Chart: Excel

Explanation/Analysis: (this is /s)

It has been a widely assumed narrative that Joe Burrow dominates the Chiefs at Arrowhead stadium based on the renaming of the Stadium to Burrowhead by Bengals player Mike Hilton. The name Burrowhead caught on like wildfire over the week and was adopted by many Bengals fans and even the Mayor of Cincinatti. So, I decided to go through the painstaking effort to find out just how dominant Joe Burrow is at Burrowhead Stadium. In yesterday's AFC Championship game at Burrowhead, a healthy Joe Burrow (26/41 for 270, 1 TD 2 INT) was outplayed by a one-legged Patrick Mahomes (29/43 for 326, 2 TDs 0 INTs) as the Chiefs advanced to their 3rd Super Bowl in the last 4 seasons.

When I looked at the data, it turns out that Joe Burrow is actually significantly worse at Burrowhead stadium. Burrow's Passer rating decreases by 22% and his ANY/A decreases by 31% when he is playing in the stadium named after him. You can see the details in the charts below.

Additionally, Joe Borrow's winning percentage when NOT at Burrowhead Stadium is .606. Thats really good, it's the equivalent of slightly better than a 10-7 record over the course of a full season. But what happens when he plays at Burrowhead? It drops to .500; a decrease in winning percentage of -.106.

Joe Burrow's passer rating of 78.0 at Burrowhead is the equivalent of Davis Mills passer rating in 2022 (31st ranked out of 33 QBs). His ANY/A at Burrowhead is the same as Carson Wentz (32nd out of 33). Burrow essentially becomes one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when his is playing at the inaptly named Burrowhead Stadium.

Now, I know some of you might be inclined to point out that it's only a two-game sample size at Burrowhead. But I now have double the sample size used in my analysis than what was used to suggest that Burrow's performance was worthy of a name change. I feel like a two-game sample size is scientifically and narratively appropriate.

I love it.

I love that someone is rubbing it in.

That said, having watched the game last night- Burrow was making some very precise throws and good decisions (generally), and that isn’t reflected in the stats. The TD to Higgins was spot-on and there was also a play where he hit a barely open Chase on the helmet (was incomplete).

One of the INTs was definitely the WRs fault for not holding on while getting hit, too.

Stats, for football, aren’t as great as other sports with more controlled environments (like baseball).

Lol what? The TD to Higgins he chucked it up into double coverage and Higgins made an absurd play. The throw to Chase on 4th was the same thing, he just tossed it into double coverage and hoped for the best. If anything his stats overstate his performance.

He also threw an should bring interception right into a defenders hands in the first quarter and the defender dropped it. You forgot to add that the things that don’t get captured in box score stats.

The TD to Higgins was literally a perfect throw and a calculated risk. And it was barely even contested.

That was exactly the type of play you’d hope to see, he gave his guy a chance and put in a spot that played in his favor. Not sure how that reflects poorly for Burrow.

The throw to Chase, who is one of the best WRs in the game, was literally perfect. You can throw into tight windows (sometimes double covered) when you’re that accurate, especially when the guy that was doubled is Jamar Chase.

These aren’t marks against, at all

Yea that happens often. So what?

The stats don’t tell as much of the story as we like to believe.

Watching that game- Burrows played well. Especially for a guy getting avalanched behind the line in probably the least friendly road environment imaginable.

>So what?

The “so what” is this...you mentioned that the stats don’t tell the entire story because he threw a good pass that the receiver didn’t catch. You called that out specifically to say he did better than the stats show. Fine.

My response is that he threw a should be interception into a defenders hands that wasn’t intercepted. I’m literally doing the same “I watched the game and stats didn’t reflect this play” thing you are doing. That’s the “so what”

You are blatantly disingenuous to give credence to a dropped pass, but not to a dropped interception.

If we adjust passer rating for your almost completion, it moves from 78.0 to 80.4

If we adjust passer rating for my almost interception it moves from 78.0 to 72.8

If we adjust passer rating by using both the almost completion and the almost interception, his passer rating moves from 78.0 to 75.1. So there you go. 75.1 it is.

Also, we all know stats don’t tell the entire story. That’s a given. It’s a snapshot of 60 minutes of football that directionally tells us how well someone performed.

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Thank you!

>Joe Burrow is actually significantly worse at Burrowhead stadium

Did you check those metrics for each "stadium n vs everything else" - just curious to see if JB's Arrowhead comparative performance is within standard deviation or not? If it was within, I'd question the "significantly" portion of the statement lol.

I had no skin in yesterday's game but I'm always partial to the underdog... At least it was entertaining, not like the PHI-SF game lol.

Man the deep shot to chase and td to higgins were both into double coverage lol. The Chiefs were down to 3 rookie corners. If one of those DBs put a fucking hand up those are both incomplete.

They were still accurate throws, to great WRs, how have the ability to win contested throws. And they landed.

You don’t think that the “down to 3 rookie corners” and great WRs at the receiving end are baked into the calculation?

Also, one of those WAS a drop. That was not Burrow’s fault. He hit his guy perfectly.

Neither of those things are baked into the calculation, no. Your point was that Burrow was better than the stats indicate, id argue he was worse than the stats indicate. His O line looked like swiss cheese, and burrows fantastic, but saying he played better than his stats last night is incorrect in my opinion.

Both those things are part of that equation. They’re tracking personnel constantly, with each new snap AND Burrow has 2 elite WRs. He’s making that throw 90% of the time in this situation because he’s on the road in a championship game and you have to.

So you’re wrong about that.

Then to go onto say Burrow didn’t play really well- well, we’ll have to just agree to disagree.

Bring up the fact that Burrow threw a dropped interception in the first quarter that he lucked out on because it was dropped and didn’t go against his stats. He hates when you mention that.

Not going to do your homework for you man, neither are part of the equation, you can look it up

There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics.

And then there is Joe Burrow.

Chase had a step on both DBs and it was under thrown by 5 yards. Go watch the replay, he has both DBs beat.

Chase, being incredible, made an adjustment back to the ball and caught it. A properly placed ball ahead of Chase is a TD. I understand why Burrow wasn’t able to put enough on it, as he was a split second from being tackled, but let’s not pretend it was “perfect” and he intended for Chase to have to slow down and come back to the ball.