Thanks, that’s an interesting take on the excess deaths. Looking at the 2022 population pyramid of Australia, I do in fact see little sharp tips at age 75. Combined with some mortality gradient as a function of age, I consider this feasible.

Until now my most likely explanation had been something to do with lockdowns, because Sweden seems to be notably missing the excess deaths. I’m sure they had the same numbers of Covid and vaccines as other European countries (didn’t look into which vaccines they used), but it is known that they had very little lockdown measures.