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eric5014 t1_j0arpfn wrote

Couldn't read due to paywall. But something to note regarding excess deaths:

Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly numbers of deaths compared to the average of the previous 5 years. This year has been significantly higher than the previous five and some have suggested vaccines or other Covid measures are to blame. Elsewhere I heard suggestions that there were many more Covid deaths missed by statistics. The main reason in Australia is that the early baby boomers have reached age 75. With more people in older age groups, more die of age-related reasons.

The ABS death stats also include sheets with an age-standardised death rate that accounts for the different ages. Not having read the article linked here I don't know whether it accounts for this or not.

I wrote more about this point here: https://stories.mappage.net.au/index.php/2022/09/04/excess-deaths-australia-early-2022/

A few sensationalist articles would say: Many more Australians are dying and no one is talking about it! The truth is, if I were to use sensationalist language is this: Many more OLD Australians are dying, and few are talking about it except the anti-mainstream agitators, who fail to mention that it's the old who are dying in increased numbers! (a bit too long for a sensational headline)

Everywhere that had a baby boom following WW2 can expect to see an increasing death rate over the next decade. Where I sit looks across the road to a cemetery where I see burials; these will become more frequent (unless offset by shifts to outer suburban cemeteries or cremations, as many struggle to afford to house the living).

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thunderflame t1_j0bsds8 wrote

Apologies if I'm misunderstanding but is your claim that a sharp jump in deaths this year can be attributed to baby boomers hitting 75? If so wouldn't you expect to see a steady, gradual increase over the past 5 years rather than what it sounds like is a step change? The categorisation of "deaths in the 75+ group" may have a spike but the likelihood of all cause deaths shouldn't be that much higher at 75 than 74 right?

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eric5014 t1_j0czpp1 wrote

You're right that it's a continuous thing, not just reaching a particular number. The early boomers are a big enough cohort now that them being a few years older makes a significant difference in death numbers compared to the average of last 5 years (and ABS skipped 2020 being atypical). In fact risk of death increases faster the older you get, so as the decade progresses we'll see bigger increases and exceed a trailing 5 year average by more than we do now.

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ButterflyCatastrophe t1_j0blztr wrote

Try an incognito window.

They do have, about halfway down, maps adjusted for age distribution that I found pretty surprising. A big stripe up the east coast of Africa, through the Middle East, India, and Russia.

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rollingbull t1_j0dh32a wrote

Thanks, that’s an interesting take on the excess deaths. Looking at the 2022 population pyramid of Australia, I do in fact see little sharp tips at age 75. Combined with some mortality gradient as a function of age, I consider this feasible.

Until now my most likely explanation had been something to do with lockdowns, because Sweden seems to be notably missing the excess deaths. I’m sure they had the same numbers of Covid and vaccines as other European countries (didn’t look into which vaccines they used), but it is known that they had very little lockdown measures.

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vineyardmike t1_j0as7dx wrote

That is a super in depth article.

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El_Heato t1_j0b4d7g wrote

"Excess deaths" is a massive shade of gray call to make. It's too subjective.

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SueSudio t1_j0bjrux wrote

Comparing historical death rates to the current year is subjective? If year after year 1% of the population dies, and the actual death counts match these projections, and then one year 1.2% of the poulation dies that is an objective measurement.

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