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adebar OP t1_ix4lx6i wrote

Reply to comment by Naive-Kangaroo3031 in 2022 FIFA World Cup finishing position probability per team [OC] by adebar

50% for the USA is for them to qualify for the round of 16. All they need is one win (against Iran is most likely) and then a draw (eg. against Wales). 50% could be the right ball park.

Also, to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.

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Naive-Kangaroo3031 t1_ix4sm35 wrote

You're right, I misread it as 50% to reach the final. That makes much more sense. Very good work

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