Submitted by adebar t3_z049lt in dataisbeautiful
Comments
adebar OP t1_ix3gu51 wrote
Have you heard of /r/wallstreetbets? You'd be right at home there. 😁
pinkshirtbadman t1_ix3hh6l wrote
You laugh now, but when my $3.87 pays off...
adebar OP t1_ix5cmo2 wrote
Please promise me to YOLO any Costa Rica winnings into deep OTM calls 😁
wesblog t1_ix3m749 wrote
Didnt costa rica beat brazil? Or was it Germany? In the last olympics?
pinkshirtbadman t1_ix6bbtv wrote
I mean, this thread is pretty dang close to 100% of my soccer knowledge, so I'm the wrong guy to ask...
islayblog t1_ix3n16w wrote
Greece, anyone?
Naive-Kangaroo3031 t1_ix3xuus wrote
50% for the USA is a bit generous.
adebar OP t1_ix4lx6i wrote
50% for the USA is for them to qualify for the round of 16. All they need is one win (against Iran is most likely) and then a draw (eg. against Wales). 50% could be the right ball park.
Also, to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
Naive-Kangaroo3031 t1_ix4sm35 wrote
You're right, I misread it as 50% to reach the final. That makes much more sense. Very good work
adebar OP t1_ix3g76o wrote
The underlying data is aggregated from Betfair. Data analysis was done in Python and I used Vega/Altair for the visualisation.
EDIT: Just to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
kungfupandey123 t1_ix3xggy wrote
Nice analysis, and I'd say pretty realistic too.
Care to share the data and Python code too ?
adebar OP t1_ix8q5j4 wrote
Sure, I just hacked together a blog for myself and you can find it there:
The data is available as a .csv file and you can also see the Python/altair code there.
Derpthinkr t1_ix4gk4l wrote
Canada finishing so far behind usa and Mexico. What data do these models use? 5 year histories?
adebar OP t1_ix4lzg2 wrote
Just to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
[deleted] t1_ix3ya3m wrote
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phdoofus t1_ix4ft1x wrote
How about past initial predictions vs outcome?
Ravmagn t1_ix3ogbt wrote
I see Netherlands going far in this tournament and a more likely candidate to win than Brazil.
adebar OP t1_ix4m1gk wrote
Just to clarify where the probabilities come from: The probabilities are the implied probabilities from the betting markets for each of those events (p = 1 / odds). This is purely based on the quotes from the market and does not involve any modelling/forecasting.
wwarnout t1_ix3lkok wrote
Does that take into account the teams that are paid to throw the game?
pinkshirtbadman t1_ix3gd2a wrote
Putting all my money on Costa Rica