Submitted by USAFacts_Official t3_yl8yag in dataisbeautiful
chlango t1_iuygcxi wrote
Speculation is the chief driver of oil prices.
tico_pico t1_iuz3at7 wrote
Not true
Dark_Marmot t1_iuz69td wrote
Please state your case..
tico_pico t1_iv1n3j4 wrote
When people say oil "prices" they typically mean crude oil futures. Crude oil futures are contracts for the future delivery/sale of a certain specification of oil at a certain location. In the case of WTI, widely considered the main US benchmark and most liquid commodity futures contract in the world, that specification is crude that meets the specs outlined here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/NYMEX/2/200.pdf
and is delivered into tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma.
Every month futures prices are tied to the physical supply and demand situation in the US because if futures prices get too expensive/cheap relative to the futures people will buy/sell crude and deliver it to Cushing. For example, say a ton of speculation drives futures to 120/bbl 3 weeks before contract expiration but there is actually tons of physical crude available and the price really shouldn't be that high. Say prices in Midland, Texas are only 90/bbl and this reflects the "real" price of physical crude based on what people around the world are willing to pay for physical barrels. Crude shippers/traders will start buying crude in Midland while simultaneously selling futures for delivery in Cushing. By doing so, those traders just locked in a 30/bbl profit minus whatever is costs to get the crude from Midland to Cushing and store it for a couple weeks. They will then ship their crude to Cushing, wait 3 weeks, and delivery against the sale contract that they agreed to at 120/bbl. You can see how in aggregate everyone doing this will bring down that futures price from 120/bbl to roughly 90/bbl.
Dark_Marmot t1_iv22pwv wrote
OK biding some copy pasta here this document mainly outlines how oil is traded as a future but still on a daily basis per market guidelines and basically outlining how its really Hedging instead straight Speculation. OK fair, that is not quite why I asked. It's the argument that these market factors some how don't drive what the barrel price might be 6 months from now or the amount of buys and puts that are in place so investors are not losing their shirts. I think some here are just trying to dispell this perception that Presidents have a magic wand that any one can wave to have a $1 per gallon or more change instantly or in months. Even releasing 200M barrels into circulation has a mere change in cents.
tico_pico t1_iv24h7t wrote
Copy pasta? What are you talking about? Having a hard time even understanding what your response is trying to convey so I don't have a response to you.
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