BSP9000 t1_isc72m0 wrote on October 14, 2022 at 9:05 PM

Reply to comment by FailOsprey in [OC] Monthly US Homicides by aidansean

Covid had little to do with it. The 2020 crime spike didn't happen in any country besides the US, despite covid being everywhere.

It was a result of the George Floyd protests and the subsequent changes to policing:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike

FailOsprey t1_isf30l4 wrote on October 15, 2022 at 2:19 PM

...one can argue that the George Floyd protests were the result of people not working, which was made possible through a combination of unemployment, government stimulus, and shutdown of schools and workplaces.

It seems that the protests are correlated with the increase in the homicide rate, but not it's cause.

sukkibds t1_isliiq2 wrote on October 16, 2022 at 9:43 PM

> It seems that the protests are correlated with the increase in the homicide rate, but not it's cause.

No the protests themselves aren't the cause. The argument is that the subsequent pulling back/ lack of policing following the protests is the proximate cause. Of course, all those things you mentioned were big factors in causing the intensity and scale of the protests so it's really a question of where you draw the line.

BSP9000 t1_isq2drs wrote on October 17, 2022 at 9:15 PM

Except that the pandemic was worldwide. Pretty much every country saw unemployment and school shutdowns. Most of the developed world had government stimulus.

Only the United States saw a 30% increase in murder. And that was mostly in black communities in the US.

So it was an effect of depolicing black communities, not an effect of unemployment.