Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

nautilus_red OP t1_irx3unt wrote

Reply to comment by NorthImpossible8906 in Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC] by nautilus_red

Ah it should be # of people you're absolutely correct.

I was also surprised that almost 25% walked away with a profit. Always good to run a simulation to detect such counterintuitive things.

​

FYI: I ran the simulation with 25'000 bets per person and there is still a probability of above 6% to walk away with a positive return.

8

NorthImpossible8906 t1_iryibv7 wrote

> 25'000 bets per person and there is still a probability of above 6% to walk away with a positive return.

and that is exactly the hook. The thing that makes gambling more addictive than crack heroin.

6

CassandraVindicated t1_irzqlg1 wrote

It's not the green that fucks you up, it's the payout. Payout should be 36 to 1 for a fair(er) game. When you set it at 35 to 1, that's giving the house another advantage other than the green. Good to know.

1

CptMisterNibbles t1_irzy33m wrote

Huh. In roulette, the green spot is pretty brilliant as it’s the “reasonable” explanation for being the odd man out on of the bets (not in: thirds, half, color, parity, corner betting, etc), so it’s incorporation fixes all those bets so they can have the otherwise “expected payout”- some house edge, but it doesn’t solve the single number payout issue, so they have to lower the payout for that bet. As it’s so high it seems reasonable. Neat

3