ImpliedProbability t1_jcxr6dd wrote
Reply to comment by GoSouthCourt in [OC] Gambling is a mug's game: How 4 different strategies panned out at one of the UK's largest gambling events of 2023, the Cheltenham Festival (more info in comments) by GoSouthCourt
No one employs these strategies. This is a naive analysis.
Plenty of sharp money makes profit from gambling. Tony Bloom is a notable, high-profile figure who made all his money from gambling, and still generates large sums from it. He has been so successful in mathematically calculating value bets he is now the owner of Brighton football club, and the 'Asian handicap' exists because of him.
You have a very basic understanding of gambling and are coming at it from a biased angle that presumes to treat everyone like children that shouldn't be left to the consequences of their own bad decisions.
Thebitterestballen t1_jcxtdak wrote
Yeah, you don't really make money from any kind of gambling by playing the odds/maths alone but by playing the people or having more information than others.. My brother used to make money from online poker, but he was a very average poker player. His entire strategy was based on profiling other players to rate them as good or bad and then joining games that have a large number of bad players... My point being many people DO play in a simplistic way, if there are enough naive players you can take relatively more of their money.
krs1one1 t1_jcxy6kd wrote
I think your naive is you don’t think the vast majority of general population having a random bet AREN’T taking one of these strategies.
People who bet “seriously”, obviously not. But I’d be shocked if the vast majority of blow ins for. A big race weekend don’t either have a favorite or roughies approach.
ImpliedProbability t1_jd4fil8 wrote
They aren't. I've never met or heard of a single individual who either only backs the favourite, or backs multiple selections in each race based solely on price.
In conclusion: you're as clueless as the OP. Most random punters will have a look at form, names, trainers or jockeys. There is no-one who is purely looking at the prices like this data does.
krs1one1 t1_jd51kr2 wrote
I mean, I only played poker professionally for about a decade and my best friend for that entire time WAS bookie.
But hey. What would I know!?
ImpliedProbability t1_jd5fx8c wrote
Very little.
X to doubt.
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