Submitted by KJ6BWB t3_122c5b2 in dataisbeautiful
Comments
ThanoIsMisunderstood t1_jdprdq2 wrote
NBA teams going to be beside themselves when an NFL analytics team takes Wembanyama first pick as QB...
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdpt0la wrote
> Wembanyama
Based on your average quarterbacks, if he was as good at throwing a football as them, I would expect him to throw over 4,000 yards in the season. Get a full team of him and I would expect interceptions to be a thing of the past. :p
ThanoIsMisunderstood t1_jdptbhy wrote
Every time his team is at the 1 yard line he just reaches the ball over the D-line and scores a TD. No need to push this QB.
Exiled_From_Twitter t1_jdpt04r wrote
Wait.... wait.... what? This is news that if you throw the ball more you will have more yards?
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdpuh37 wrote
No, it's not news. However, I was expecting to see more outliers like Patrick Mahomes, with a z-score of 1.6. Actually, I just calc'd z-scores for everyone and Tua Tagovailoa has the highest z-score out of starting quarterbacks at 2.88 which is just insane.
While he's not shown on this chart, as I didn't want to tweak data labels for 108 people so they weren't hiding each other, I did do the numbers for everyone who attempted to pass the ball and we can see that Taysom Hill is best in the league at getting the most mileage from his throws and should get more playtime. Also, Sam Darnold as we can be fairly confident his 140 pass attempts for 1143 yards weren't flukes.
Here's the average yards per pass attempt, best in the NFL:
| Name | Average yards per pass attempt |
|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 12.63158 |
| Jordan Love | 9.285714 |
| Nick Mullens | 8.96 |
| Sam Howell | 8.894737 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8.87 |
| Gardner Minshew | 8.723684 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 8.64557 |
| Bailey Zappe | 8.48913 |
| Sam Darnold | 8.164286 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 8.101852 |
| Brock Purdy | 8.082353 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8.045652 |
On that table, only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts are starting quarterbacks. The others should possibly get more playtime.
But that's the thing about doing a statistical analysis. You don't really know what you're going to get until you do it. If you never do an analysis on anything that you think is probably true anyway, you could miss stuff.
JPAnalyst t1_jdqq5is wrote
Again, you missing so much context because you don’t understand football. T.Hill is listed as a Tight End, he has very few throws because he throws on gadget plays. His Y/A is the result of a small sample size and the element of surprise on said gadget plays. He should not play more at QB. You don’t understand the subject matter, just because you can plot two things or divide two numbers doesn’t mean you should.
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdqv1n6 wrote
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillTa00.htm lists him as a quarterback and https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/taysom-hill-position-fantasy-football-stats-te/h8kjnky1khbcgw1gja1eousn says although his team listed him as a tight end, they've been using him as a quarterback. His stats seem to suggest if another team picked him up as their starting quarterback then he wouldn't be bad in that position.
JPAnalyst t1_jdqvd03 wrote
Now go down to 2022 and look at the position “TE”. His position has changed.
Now go to the Saints official roster on their website. They employ him, they should know. They list him as a TE https://www.neworleanssaints.com/team/players-roster/taysom-hill/
If this guy would be a good quarterbacks, he would be a starting QB. NFL teams know a lot more than KJ6BWB.
You haven’t followed football. You’re not in your lane which is okay, but what’s bad is you’re not willing to listen to anyone. Dunning-Kruger is real.
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdqwtss wrote
They're not official in any way but https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/10/10/23395375/taysom-hill-fantasy-football-waiver-wire-stats-week-5-tight-end
JPAnalyst t1_jdqxe66 wrote
The Draft Kings link that says this
> but if you’re struggling to find a tight end to reliably start, he’s a good option for a huge week of points every now and then
Which is what I said. He’s listed as a TE.
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdraq04 wrote
https://dknation.draftkings.com/2023/1/8/23539324/taysom-hill-fantasy-football-nfl-dfs-week-18-picks-draftkings-saints says it's hard to call him a tight end anymore.
JPAnalyst t1_jdrbbu5 wrote
But he’s a tight end. I don’t care how “hard it is to call him one”. He’s a gadget player, his team lists him as a tight end, your link lists him as a tight end, pro football reference lists him as a tight end in 2022. Gadget players aren’t starting quarterbacks. I watch football, I write about football, I analyze football. I don’t understand why you dismiss everything I say, especially considering you’ve never attempted to engage with football content before, which is evident in all of your comments as well as what other people have said to you.
Less doubling down and more listening will get you much further.
Exiled_From_Twitter t1_jdpw78i wrote
But it's not a "I think it's true" it's "I KNOW it's true". Even this isn't all that meaningful. Averaging more yards per attempt doesn't necessarily matter. There are much better metrics to use that would knock guys like Howell, Minshew, Bridgewater, etc out of this list. Purdy and Darnold were starters last year (on the same team now and only Purdy has a chance at starting but prob not).
Philboyd_Studge t1_jdpvkbx wrote
What time frame is this, just last season?
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdqr7sz wrote
Yup, the latest stats that were available to me.
JPAnalyst t1_jdqcznz wrote
You made a chart that shows the more people try to do a thing, the more that thing happens? Of course it does. The more darts I throw the more that hit the board. The more I step on the gas the more miles my car goes. This is absurd, particularly because it’s an attempt to one up my chart that you ripped yesterday.
If your goal is to find outliers, you simply use a table or bar chart of quarterbacks’ yards per attempt. (Y/A, NY/A, or ANY/A)
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdqseo1 wrote
I have that table. It's how I created this chart. I wanted to see if there was clustering, obvious outliers, etc. There's not really. So if taller players tend to get more pass yardage and pass yardage and attempts are strangely correlated, shorter players tend to try for pass yardage less often, in general.
KJ6BWB OP t1_jdpq4ok wrote
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Where or how you got the data (Source): https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
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The tool used to generate the visual (Tool): Excel
Total passing yards appears to be highly correlated with attempts to pass the ball. Other than Patrick Mahomes, out of the 32 starting quarterbacks, there doesn't appear to be statistical outliers. In general, per https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/122avg2/taller_american_football_players_tend_to_throw/ taller quarterbacks means more total yards but it would appear total pass attempts is even more important.
Although, the trendline is polynomial. It would appear there is some slight amount of diminishing returns as number of pass attempts increases -- it's not purely linear. As pass attempts increases, in general you have to throw more and more passes to continue to increase in total yardage (which everyone does).
Unless you're Patrick Mahomes who is apparently a throwing machine.
[deleted] t1_jdpstx0 wrote
[removed]
thekaleshake t1_jdqf4a2 wrote
Why is height a part of this graph?