This simulation depicts the steady release of a million pounds of persistent chemical from East Palestine, Ohio. The model was initialized to start around 02Z on February 4th (9PM EST 2/3/23), since the crash site was reportedly on fire after the derailment. According, to AP News, the controlled burn of vinyl chloride started on Monday, February 6th. Consequently, this would have been when the largest plume was likely emitted towards Western Pennsylvania.

HYSPLIT was the same model used by the National Weather Service to assist in evacuations of East Palestine, Ohio [Source]. Please do not harass me to remove this post for not being a perfect chemical model. If you don't like this post, downvote it and run your own model simulation. I'm only posting this since there are reports of folks getting sick tens of miles away from East Palestine, Ohio.

Please don't focus on the exact concentrations of chemical, especially since the EPA has reportedly found additional toxic substances burning at the site (ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, ethylhexyl acrylate, and isobutylene). The main focus should be on the potential threat that trace amounts of carcinogens may have been dispersed far away from East Palestine, Ohio.

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