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liortulip OP t1_j8s016d wrote

Reply to comment by NarcissusLovesEcho in [OC] Prediction markets forecast the supreme court will end affirmative action by liortulip

Yeah - I was pretty surprised that there could be this much certainty in any court ruling this controversial, but it seems that the stance of each supreme court justice is well understood.

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Yalay t1_j8vxiqt wrote

The oral argument already happened. It's usually pretty clear how most of the justices are going to vote based on the questions they ask, not to mention their past decisions/writings on the topic.

And for this particular issue, the last time affirmative action was in front of the court it was 4-3 to uphold it. All three dissenting votes are still on the court, while three of the four from the majority have left. Add in Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett who weren't on the court at the time, and it's pretty likely at least two of them will vote to strike down AA.

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