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tree-of-thought OP t1_j81k88j wrote

Reply to comment by CheeseTheGood in Recent Superbowl Win Probabilities, Ordered by "Excitement" [OC] by tree-of-thought

I know, it's a real problem!

I think simply factoring in the sum of scores (or maybe the sum of scores averaged over every play of the game) would go a long way towards pushing that one down the rankings.

It's also been pointed out to me that SB 38 is remembered as especially exciting, but it's right in the middle of my rankings.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm sad the first attempt has such glaringly "wrong" results, but this is why we get feedback and iterate!

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CheeseTheGood t1_j81koe4 wrote

Until you can factor in the "Eye Test" you're gonna have a hard time. It's why scouts still have jobs.

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clamraccoon t1_j84kin8 wrote

Is it deemed more exciting if the winner’s win probability is low throughout the game?

If a team is heavily favored, even if the score is tied, their win probability is higher, meaning a back and forth game where the favorite has a narrow lead can skew this graph.

I think the Rams were favored in that dreadful SB LIII, and the biggest lead of the game was 10, meaning win probability stayed pretty level.

Cool data points. Like all data, it can be misleading

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tree-of-thought OP t1_j84qk1s wrote

“winners win probability is low throughout the game” is one of the three factors influencing the composite score. (if it were the sole factor, the patriots falcons bowl would be the most exciting game by far)

The other two factors are “win probability closeness to 0.5” and “win probability changes”

You’re right, that awful rams super bowl won the “closeness to 0.5” category, which is why it’s ranked top 5

And yeah, it’s a fun cool project but not perfect. The best way to assess super bowl excitement is still to sit down and watch!

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