eldorado OP t1_j7ux6bi wrote on February 9, 2023 at 4:17 PM

Reply to comment by __eldorado__ in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__

For example, 4 and 7 are each only about 80-85% as common as they were before 2015. (In 2015, the NFL moved the extra point distance back from 20 yards, where kickers converted 99% of the time, to 33 yards, where they now make only 94% of their extra-point kicks. Combined with near-record levels of field goals and 2-point conversion attempts, scores have gotten a lot weirder than they used to be.)