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I bought a 2 bedroom fixer upper in Hyde Park with 0% down (NACA) in 2019 AMA

Do you eat macaroni with a fork or a spoon?

Depends mostly spoon

People are going to have to wait out the market. People can get everything ready for when something comes up so they can move quickly.

The boomers ironically will have priced themselves out of the GBA once they retire since they blocked so much housing being built that could have been for them.

There was a news piece a while back about boomers being upset that there were no smaller apartments and homes in their towns that they could down size into.

And I got to literally laugh out loud at them facing the consequences of their own actions and voting behavior. Before I was sad again about how fucked the housing market is for everyone.

Do you have a Time Machine? Houses prices were 50% lower in 2019.

>made home buying feel impossible

For a lot of us, it is impossible.

I feel like this is what happened after 2008. Lots of people were on the sidelines and demand for homes was like a dam breaking.

The other issue with this is that because they can't downsize they will stay in housing that is too big. This will keep homes from reaching the market...and the cycle worsens.

My issue with this advice is that more often than not "waiting out the market" simply hasn't worked. History shows that real estate prices trend much further upward in the long term than any downward trends or adjustments in interest rates have made housing more affordable in short term events in the past. Even during 2008 Boston had very resilient housing prices compared to the rest of the US. Waiting for the next major crash could mean missing out on decades of price appreciation. For those that buying now or in foreseeable future is impossible for, this reality simply sucks and we as a society need to address it, but waiting for a crash to fix this for them is not a realistic option.

See the tax break Healy is suggesting for said seniors. Will only make the housing market worse.

We're pretty fucked in the short- and medium-term...

but by-right construction of up to 6 stories anywhere within 0.5 miles of the T and up to 4 units on SFH lots everywhere else would go a long long way to restoring balance and affordability to the market.

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You can't wait it out. Saving money is being outpaced at the rate of interest rate and home price increases. If you aren't already in, you aren't going to be able to save your way in unless you start making 30% more annual salary.

A lot of us are utterly fucked by treating housing like investments and businesses. Eventually most people in our situation will get sick of endless rent increases and leave for cheaper locations. Boston either starts to fix this now or will see some serious exodus from the mid-high level salary ranges (140-200k) which represents a lot of Boston's workforce and then has knock-on effects on the service industry and small businesses.

Yeah, I don't get giving seniors a break on property taxes. Old people own all the damn property. Give young people who own nothing a break. If an old person is struggling to pay property taxes then they bought something they couldn't afford. They can get a roommate to help pay expenses. That is what they tell young people to do.

I'm working with two realtors at the moment. They keep sending me homes that were assessed at 350k to 400k.

The owners want, typically, 100k more than that.

This market is outright bullshit.

No, but I sold that house at the end of 2020. It has not appreciated 50%.

I bought it for 375k, did a DIY renovation and spent 20k, listed for 470k, sold it for 500k. But it was a hoarder house when I bought it, there were dead mice all over the house.

Since I sold it I think it’s worth slightly less. And the person who bought I from me had an insanely low interest rate like 2% with no down payment so they didn’t care they were paying more.

Or have their adult kids move in with them to help pay bills.

Many seniors do live with family or with roommates in a "retirement home." Those are things that already happen.

Not to mention the opportunity cost of letting a downpayment sit there in cash for years while you "wait it out".

I think it was this one (or some similar one): https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/29/metro/market-badly-out-kilter-many-older-residents-are-stuck-their-homes/

Yeah, the article kind of missed that smaller units were mostly illegal.

That's mostly about city and county assessors trying to avoid getting yelled at by their constituents. All the political incentives are in place for towns to under-assess properties if they can get away with it.

3-deckers by right statewide, 6 stories within a mile of the T, 12 stories within a half mile of the T.

It's because your local city councilors and state representatives get 74 calls per week from retired senior citizens and 6 calls per week from young people trying to start a family.

Build build build, NIMBYs can get bent.

“Let them eat cake neighborhood character”

Bank assessments or city assessments? City assessments are very typically below market sale rate (which is what bank assessments look at).

It’s crazy. I was looking at a house all the way out in Medway. Nice little two bedroom. They want $414k, okay fine. Then I looked at the price history - the house was purchased for half that in 2019.

My income has gone up a little since 2019 but not enough to keep with with these prices.

They're not making more land. They're not making more houses. There's no way to wait this out. The middle class will collapse before housing prices do

This is slightly extreme but the premise isn’t uncommon.

If you bought a $500,000 house a few years ago you’d prefer the city thinks it’s only worth $450,000 because that’s what you’ll be taxed on, but you’d like to think the value is increasing and you could sell it for $550,000 tomorrow.

The city’s assessment is pretty much always less than sales comps.

One of Trumps lawsuits is based on an elaborate scheme of basically this very thing.

Wife and I bought near Haverhill last summer, at the top of the market. We did 90k over asking. We paid nearly 600k for a 3 bed built in the 50s with only 1.3k sf. The only reason we could afford it is an inheritance on my end (I know, I know...)

Sure we got a low interest rate, but I don't see us being able to move to a better house in the next 10 years and we absolutely overpaid for our home.

Now, though? Things that were in our price range 9 months ago are like 1k higher on the monthly payment than they were before.

The market is fucked, and it won't get better until rates take a SIGNIFICANT dip. Even then, we're back to stupid bidding wars.

This is brilliant.

I’m lucky and bought in a cheap city in 2019 and my rate is low. I started looking in the area for a bigger house and yard for my girlfriend and our dogs. Even with what I’d make off selling my house I couldn’t come close to my monthly payment right now.

I have no idea how people are going to afford houses or condos now.

If you don't mind me asking, what city?

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Bought a condo (converted 4 unit apartment building, nothing remotely fancy) in 2019 after scraping together a down payment. Unit next to mine sold to a boomer couple, who live on the cape, for their late-20s kids to live in. I got in a fight with the mom because she kept calling the building an investment... I had to repeatedly say "This is my home, I live here" to convince her I was much more invested in its upkeep than she would ever be. The "housing as investment" people can get fucked. Housing is a human right and they are the problem.

Have you considered offing some additional family members to rake in more inheritance money?

Time in the market beats timing the market. If you really have your heart set on Boston and can afford to buy now, you should just go outside the metro area until you can find something you can afford and buy. Build up that equity, then if the situation improves in Boston, cash out the equity and buy in Boston. If not, stay where you are.

If you're ready to buy now and keep waiting, you're going to lose in the end with inflation eating away at that down payment.

Doom scrolling Zillow and Redfin is fun because you can find 350k stickers popup and have a slight glimmer of hope only to realize that's for an acre of woods or a 90 year old shack with literal holes in the floor

Trump was somehow allowed to set his own assessments- city does that for us.

Low for taxes, high for sales.

Yeah I bought like 6 years ago and that already required an extremely frugal lifestyle and two tech incomes. It felt like we were the people catching the last rung of the ladder as it was pulled up. We wouldn't be able to afford our house today with how much it's appreciated.

We were so lucky. Bought a condo right before the interest rate jump. 2.75%!!

It is great if someone already owns a house (or multiple)

I’m confused who these boomers think they’re going to sell to?

Look at the demographics, there is no bigger generation. There will never be another grey wave. Those many who own assets are currently asset rich. Soon they will be selling those assets for cash to the few. All in order to get healthcare and retirement care. They will be selling to those who are deep in debt and who want them dead.

I’m hoping for a huge bust. But frankly speaking I’ve given up. Best case scenario is to bet on options and plan an arbitrage situation where I join a wave of Americans gentrifying another country like Mexico or Portugal.

Cant afford a subscription to the Globe; saving my pennies to not buy a home

Yeah the market is wack. I bought mine for 620k in November and now it's estimated at 720k. Wild, and I feel so bad for everyone who can't afford.

The problem is that people with money will buy up all the houses. And the boomers that own a home will be leaving it to their children who will either hold it, rent it, or sell it for as much as possible. Not at the price point they want to sell it at? Hold or rent

Or a parking spot.

Rent it to who? Pay property taxes with what? And those children will be selling it to whom? The point is that demand could very well dry up considerably and it will become a buyers market.

> The market is fucked, and it won't get better until rates take a SIGNIFICANT dip. Even then, we're back to stupid bidding wars.

Prices go up when rates dip usually.

This is my mom. I've tried explaining it to her, she just gets mad. I've given up.

At the same time she's been bitching for months now about the two single-family homes going up across the street from her house "because it is too dense".

Boomers gonna boom.

See the second sentence you quoted.

Lol "attention investors and contractors"

I’m sure private equity will be happy to buy everything up on the cheap

Nah

Housing is looked at as a commodity now and not just by real estate investors anymore, everyone is realizing it's a safe place to invest and it's hedge against inflation. You can leverage someone else's money(banks) to buy something of full value in cash you do not currently have, can't do that with anything else. The monthly mortgage payment in 2023 money is going to be the same in 2035 except it's going to feel like a lot less after another decade plus of inflation. It sucks for regular people just trying to get a place to live where they want to live and work. Big businesses are renting in residential areas, Airbnb is widely used now in neighborhoods. Housing has fundamentally changed and many are predicting that individuals won't be able to buy property in the near future. Also there won't be another crash like 07-08 banks are making damn sure your qualified for the loans they give out, they aren't going to get caught holding the bag again, notice any foreclosures lately? Me either. This is the exact same thing I heard in 2013 guess what there are many many ways to buy besides conventional, if you want to own a home stop waiting for market corrections or interest rates to come down, find a deal that works for you and take it. If you can't shop on the MLS then don't there's other ways, I don't shop at whole foods but I still eat.

This right here. I’m waiting for people to leave because for the last 10 years I get to the point where I finally have 20% saved and then house prices go up by just that much more. I had my fingertips touching a house in 2020 and then I lost my job. I’m thankful it happened before the sale but I’m still bitter about it.

Interestingly, my former coworker who lives in nowheresville Texas just accepted a fully remote programming job for a MA hospital. I imagine no one in MA could afford to take the role for the salary she’s being paid (def <$100k/yr). But I guess it’s a win win for them. And yes, that leaves the rest of us screwed or needing to move and reliant on fully remote work.

I feel like not much is going to change really until the Boomers move to Florida or die off

IIRC the basis of the fraud case is:

In his attempt to buy the Buffalo Bills, he provide the NFL a list of assets and their declared value. I’ve never bought an NFL team and don’t know who’s value you’re supposed to use but I’m sure it’s not common to use municipal property assessments.

The trouble is, in filing his taxes, he provided an identical list of assets, but the value he declared to the United States Government varied greatly from the value he submitted to the NFL.

It’s a game everyone plays to some degree but none quite as brazen as Trump.

I’m sure BlackRock will be happy to buy up a significant portion of the boomers’ housing stock and we’ll all be renting from them within 20 years.

And who owns Blackrock? Pension plans that will need to pay out or is there another major generational asset holder I’m missing?

I’d imagine companies like Blackrock would be paying out pensions in part using rent from properties they own/will own. My understanding of this is abysmal, but it fits the boomers-siphoning-wealth-from-younger-generations narrative fairly well.

Meanwhile, my social security deductions for February would cover ~3wks of groceries.

Prices went up 100k and then afterwards rates doubled and prices didn't move at all. Still just way too few available houses and way, way, way, way too many people that want to buy a house.

Increases your buying power and reduces demand at the same time!

Google tells me there are 2 million more millennials than boomers, and that population is growing faster than housing.

How is this relevant?

Yes, we are screwed, we know it. But can homeowners please stop with the "I feel so sorry for everyone whose assets didn't double in the past few years like mine did" comments.

I've heard multiple stories from people who bought a building in Somerville or Cambridge (this goes back to the '90s) and find that part of the building had illegally been converted into a mother-in-law apartment or that there was an illegal unit added into somewhere like a basement or an attic.

Yeah, the basement of my current home in Somerville definitely had an illegal apartment in it a some point. There are still remnants of tile from a bathroom.

Looking at price history practically always sours me on buying a house. I love paying a 40% markup just because I'm buying now instead of a few years ago.

"could"

Nothing has shown that it's going to dry up. Still insane levels of demand even with the price + rate increases.

Yep. That’s exactly how I feel. I made 20k less 3-4 years ago but, honestly, I was in a better position to buy a home than I am now… just wasn’t ready to buy then.

Yeah I’m good, that’s too much.

12 story buildings aren’t livable in the same way that 4-6 story ones are. Stick those directly on top of T stations and keep them TF away from everywhere else.

5 stories by right within a walk shed of a half mile from T stops in the direct metro (Boston plus inner suburbs) is a good starting place. Livability should be a key consideration in constructing neighborhoods of higher density.

I’d honestly be ok with urban renewal of triple decker neighborhoods to tear down those rotting pieces of shit (as a former triple decker resident, aka rat grove).