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TerpenesByMS t1_j0a0rf2 wrote

Truly, the biggest variables are:

  1. The economics of green energy
  2. Geopolitical circumstances (conflict, sanctions, etc.)

Everything else is details: Returns on new petroleum recovery tech is likely diminishing. New well finding is also, as you mention, unlikely to add a large boon either.

I really hope Peak Oil is by 2040. otherwise we're boinked.

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