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pucklermuskau t1_itv0hxz wrote

Reply to comment by eth_trader_12 in How does one figure out what probability is most relevant when deciding how probable something is? by eth_trader_12

what difference does it make that you know her name?

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eth_trader_12 OP t1_itvas30 wrote

It doesn’t. You missed the entire point of the example. Even if I didn’t know her name, I would know that a specific person won it, and the math would be the same.

The math would be different only if I knew that someone at some time won two lotteries, not at a specific time. The time is what’s relevant here

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pucklermuskau t1_itvbekr wrote

in all examples that are being discussed, those that you're strangely dismissing, we are assuming that the same person has won twice in a row. you're misunderstanding the argument.

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