Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

PHealthy t1_jdiztvk wrote

Reply to comment by phred14 in What happened to the old COVID variants, like Delta? Could they come back? by number1dork

Omicron isn't a single serotype (immune recognition), it's actually a ton:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

So this isn't waning immunity, it's serotype emergence that escapes immunity.

ELI5: we get a great pitcher versus the first batter but they keep changing batters as we strike them out until eventually our pitcher is terrible. Then we bring in a new pitcher to match against the best batter we've seen so far and it starts all over again.

363

phred14 t1_jdj1pe4 wrote

Thank you for that perspective, it makes me feel much better about things. Not enough better to quit being careful, but still better than I had been.

38

chimpfunkz t1_jdj2jfy wrote

The other half of it is, Even though the batters started hitting instead of striking out, they're mostly hitting singles or doubles instead of home runs. So it's easier to prevent runs from being scored (in this analogy, runs are deaths)

61

mikmckn t1_jdje2qd wrote

And as time progresses, the batters learn to go for base hits instead of home runs because it maximizes their time on base instead of killing the host.

35

northatlanticdivide t1_jdjwo1o wrote

I’ve followed mutations on nextstrain for a while and those of you who are more visual learners like me may find it interesting. It was particularly fascinating watching the rise of delta and it’s being overtaken by omicron. You can also track flu, Ebola, measles, etc.

31

kurai_tori t1_jdjboh1 wrote

This is why the latest booster is based on the mRNA of two variants. Both to increase your immunity to an increased number of variants (there is some cross protection from related variants, depends on how similar the spike protein/antigen is to the original that the antibodies previously produced (e.g. via vaccination).) as well as to increase your "standing army" of antibodies (specific antibodies levels drop after a while, leaving memory cells that will "activate" when reexposed to the Covid antigen (variant-specfic spike protein). Problem is the memory cell response might be too slow, hence the need for boosters of the same variant.

Flu shots are a good example of this and we will likely be moving to a similar approach with COVID.

29

fakeittil_youmakeit t1_jdjbodw wrote

Question for you - I couldn't get the most recent booster due to some health issues at the time. I'm doing much better now and could probably be in a good enough place to do it in the next couple of months or so, at that point, is it even worth it or will the serotypes have changed so much it's not effective anymore? If that's the case are there going to be annual boosters and should I just wait for the next one in October or something? TIA!

9

Tephnos t1_jdk617u wrote

You should still get the bivalent booster now if you can. In the US, it is based off of BA.5, which isn't too far removed from the current circulating XBB 1.5 and BQ1.1 strains.

It is likely that later this year we'll get an updated booster again, possibly targeting XBB if it still sticks around.

27

KruppeTheWise t1_jdk9j3q wrote

Is the fact we vaccinated during the pandemic likely to have put evolutionary pressure on selecting serotypes that can defeat vaccine protection?

1