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barefootozark t1_iwc2paa wrote

This is difficult to understand considering how improbable it was.

In the primary held in August this district had 73,060 Dem votes and 142,550 Republican votes. Of those Perez got almost all the Dem vots at 68,190. Kent got 50,197, out going Butler got 49,001, and a third candidate got 35,219. Key thing to note is that the R total turnout was 142K vs 73K D turnout... at 2:1 ratio. Dems ran one candidate and turnoout was overwhelmingly supported R's but was largely split 3 ways.

Then the general election happens 3 months later and it's a complete flip. Perez gets 153,169, doubling hers and dems turnout in the primary. Kent gets barely gets more than the total R turnout in the primary increasing from 142K to 149K.

So what happened. Did R voters in the primary vote D in the general, or did D's not vote in the primary and showup 2X in the general? When has this EVER happened to this large of extent?

It was only 3 months? Fivethirtyeight had it 98% chance win for Kent. I didn't hear of any campaigning for Perez (yes, I'm in the district), but the car shop owner wins. Stunningly improbable turn of events.

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barefootozark t1_iwc7aa1 wrote

In WA-8 district, the other competitive district, the D:R ratio from the primary to general doesn't change much. This indicates that people that vote R in the primary continue and vote R in the general. In this case Larkin's primary votes with many R's running increased from 34,684 to 139,766 in the general where he is the only R running.

In the WA-8 Primary there were 101,201 D votes and 100,293 R votes. Each increases ~50% (60% D/ 40% R) in the general: D 159,131, R 139,766.

The WA-3 and WA-8 had similar total turnouts in the Primary and General... from 200K to 300K:

  • WA-3 Primary 220K
  • WA-8 Primary 204K
  • WA-3 General 304K
  • WA-8 General 299K

Truly unreal results.

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