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theclieb t1_iw5azmb wrote

Reply to comment by [deleted] in Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Republican Joe Kent in WA House race by agitant5934

Agree with good chunks of this, but when Brian Baird was in office the distinct included lots of the Olympia area. Then WA got a new congressional district in the Oly area and that removed a major democrat-leaning area. I’m guessing Herrera Butler would have lost re-election in 2012 had the distinct still included Olympia. So long story short, I think this win was much less likely than any recent D victory in the last 10-20 years for this district.

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Zombeasts t1_iw5cxd8 wrote

From 538's website "Just to emphasize how unlikely that Democratic pickup in Washington’s 3rd District was, our midterm forecast gave Gluesenkamp Pérez just a 2-in-100 shot of defeating Kent. That is the upset of the cycle thus far. While Kent always seemed likely to be a weaker GOP candidate than Herrera Beutler, a Republican losing an R+9 seat is highly unusual in a midterm when Democrats control the White House."

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