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[deleted] t1_iw58r18 wrote

Reply to comment by agitant5934 in Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Republican Joe Kent in WA House race by agitant5934

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theclieb t1_iw5azmb wrote

Agree with good chunks of this, but when Brian Baird was in office the distinct included lots of the Olympia area. Then WA got a new congressional district in the Oly area and that removed a major democrat-leaning area. I’m guessing Herrera Butler would have lost re-election in 2012 had the distinct still included Olympia. So long story short, I think this win was much less likely than any recent D victory in the last 10-20 years for this district.

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Zombeasts t1_iw5cxd8 wrote

From 538's website "Just to emphasize how unlikely that Democratic pickup in Washington’s 3rd District was, our midterm forecast gave Gluesenkamp Pérez just a 2-in-100 shot of defeating Kent. That is the upset of the cycle thus far. While Kent always seemed likely to be a weaker GOP candidate than Herrera Beutler, a Republican losing an R+9 seat is highly unusual in a midterm when Democrats control the White House."

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