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It's so hard to know how to feel about that.

Very non uplifting events with a glimmer of a silver lining.

It would have been much better to have an acceleration towards clean energy without war, but conflict is the mother of innovation I guess.

Same thing happened with Covid.

Without it we wouldnt be forced to adapt to things like 'working from home' or cut down on things that in retrospeced we can live without. Without it that transition could have went on for decades before the culture slowly shifts.

Covid sucked, but it did push some positive changes.

Is it though? Just this morning I read about solar farm projects in my country coming to a standstill because material prices are through the roof.

I expect the International Energy Agency is factoring in a very broad range of factors in this, materials cost being a no-brainer in that.

And one big factor in rising material costs is sharply rising worldwide demand...

Hopefully that price bottleneck comes from increased demand putting temporary pressure on supply, rather than presenting a longer term delay in transitioning to solar 🙏🙏

Since the war is in fact happening, we can only hope for and work towards positive outcomes from it.

Or, maybe another way to look at it: Russia’s invasion didn’t cause disruption in Russian gas & oil markets—the Western response to the war did. It’s like how British rationing during WWII (a response to Nazi aggression) caused the British population to develop a taste for horrible canned food. Except a taste for renewables is actually good

>horrible canned food

I'll have you know baked beans and spam are the pinnacle of culinary excellence and I won't hear a bad word said against the great British canned delights!

Although I like the rest of your post, you have a point there.

Kinda surprised they're pegging 2025 considering CO2 emissions are predicted to increase by only 1% this year (also an IEA prediction). Peak is definitely approaching.

Considering their lack of successes in previous predictions (peak oil anyone?), I would really be more hesitant about making more.

Two posts here telling us good news while another story on the front page says it is too late already.

Sorry mate, I was out of line, thanks for Cadburys, you guys are crushing it keep er up bud

They're talking about different things and not mutually exclusive.

The other report was saying it's likely now too late to come in below the target of 1.5 degrees of warming by 2030, which means an acceleration of extreme weather is probably inevitable.

This is about the energy industry being on the brink of peaking it's CO2 output. Which, whether we experience severe climate effects or not, needs to happen. However bad it gets with intensive efforts to stop it, it would likely be much worse without.

Even with tipping points, it's not a binary switch of climate change happens / climate change doesn't happen. It has happened, it is happening, it will happen, and people and ecosystems will suffer for it.

To simplify, the levers we still hold are "how fast can we transition away from high-carbon emitting industry?", "how much additional carbon can we sequester?" and "can we/how much can we mitigate heating by other means?". They will determine whether it it be civilisation-damagingly bad (i.e. after a lot of adversity we reach some kind of manageable equilibrium in future decades with a society that is at least recognisable), or civilisation-endingly bad (i.e. it doesn't correct until centuries after it's forcibly reduced us to a stone-age sized population).

This report speaks to the first of those three levers, and puts something on the side of the scales that says we might have at least a fighting chance of reaching that manageable equilibrium.