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catfink1664 t1_iyebikw wrote

According to this link https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths - 69 million people die every year. Divide that into 8 billion and you get 115.94 years. So you weren’t far wrong, if that website is right! Though to be fair i only did that one google haha

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[deleted] t1_iyehvww wrote

That number per year will increase as population has increased. Unless we suddenly get a lot of people living more than 100 years then more than 8 billion (current population) will die in the next 100

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catfink1664 t1_iyeyb2a wrote

That assumes that the population does increase though. There are two schools of thought on that one, and also, worldwide political instability increasing. People are living longer, but in the developed world, birth rates are slowing. But no one can actually predict the future, and for sure i don’t have 100 years left, so i’ll never know for sure who was right

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[deleted] t1_iyf0694 wrote

No, it doesn't assume the population has to increase. The CURRENT population is 8 billion. Almost all of those 8 billion will be dead in 100 years. In addition to the current 8 billion, millions more are born daily who won't make it to 99.5 years, and 100s of millions more will be born in the next 5 years who won't make it to 95, etc, while very few of the current 8 billion will still be alive in 101 years.

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SoulfulNeonBank t1_iyee6ng wrote

I think the math is a bit wrong. Wouldn’t it be 69M a year, times 100 years? 6.9B people? Strictly on the math of course.

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KenobiChosen1 t1_iyeeujt wrote

You’re both right. He’s saying how long he think it’ll take for 8 billion people to die based on how many people die per year currently which isn’t 100 years. You’re saying how many people will die in a 100 years.

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SoulfulNeonBank t1_iyeewxn wrote

Oh I’m a fucking idiot

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catfink1664 t1_iyex553 wrote

Lol no you’re not! Just using the other value in the equation! They both had equal weight in the original statement

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catfink1664 t1_iyewito wrote

And yet i got downvoted and the guy not in our thread who used trust me bro got like 30 upvotes lol. Funny internet

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KenobiChosen1 t1_iyex7eo wrote

Not that you should’ve gotten downvoted, but to be fair your logic isn’t completely sound. The death rate isn’t the same every year and it’ll definitely not be the same in a hundred or so years. As time goes on more people will die each year because populations get higher and higher for age group. Most people currently dying of old age were born when the population was significantly smaller than it is now

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