I don't disagree with a majority your points. Saying I'm surprised at one poll wasn't meant to be a wholehearted endorsement of this poll or any polls.

I think there's value in the info but it's really just 1 isolated data point in this case. I think you can question the methodology all you want, but this one might not be wrong right now. It's still super early and there's a huge undecided margin. Even a broken clock is still right twice a day every single day.