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ScienceWasLove t1_j3gmzqr wrote

Reply to comment by [deleted] in Majority of 16k canceled Pa. mail-in ballots were from Dems by TransporterOffline

You are incorrect in stating that this information answers his question. Almost 1.2 million mall in ballots were cast. This info is in the article.

1,000,000 dem and 187,0000 rep mail in ballots.
1% of dem and 1.8% of rep mail in ballots were discarded.

Republicans were 1.8 times more likely to have their mail-in ballot canceled vs. dems.

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AmbiguousMessages t1_j3gppu9 wrote

If the election was based on the number of mail in ballots that would matter. But it wasn’t. In the overall count more democratic votes were negated.

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5illy_billy t1_j3gxpy0 wrote

You are manipulating statistics to misrepresent the situation. 10,900 D vs. 3,500 R means three times as many dem votes were thrown out as republican. Framing it as a percentage of mail-in ballots cast is deliberately misleading.

Dems voted by mail way more than Republicans. Republican leaders know this and promoted conspiracy theories about mail-in voter fraud, discouraging conservatives from voting by mail. Then they threw out a bunch of mail ballots and whoops! who could have predicted that this would affect dems more?! That’s very convenient for republican leaders, huh.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3h2xqj wrote

Thank you for proving my point. What a great conspiracy. 1% of democratic mail in ballots were discarded.

99% of 1,000,000 were counted correctly.

Percents matter. Proportions matter. Using percents or “3x” with out showing all the raw numbers is not good analysis.

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where the discarded ballots (republican or democrat) impacted the results for that district?

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where ALL mail-in ballots impacted the result for that district?

Most likely not, because they are a rounding error when compared to the in-person voting.

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SecurelyObscure t1_j3h0b63 wrote

>Republicans were 1.8 times more likely to have their mail-in ballot canceled vs. dems.

We'd have to know the number of ballots that were cured, and therefore didn't count towards the number of cancelled votes, to see if party is a significant indicator. 4 of the six counties that outright refused to cure ballots lean heavily red.

Also need to normalize by demographics like age and educational attainment, which would impact the ability to follow the voting instructions.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3h3909 wrote

Fair enough. That “1.8 times” is just an alarming way to manipulate the raw numbers, just like the articles headline.

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