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feudalle t1_j3f50cc wrote

I think I'd like to know how many votes by mail by party. If 10 times more mail in votes were by democrats then logic would dictate more democratic ballots would be in error. Looking at the numbers my guess is by percentage third party ballots have the highest reject rate.

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[deleted] t1_j3fhfi6 wrote

[deleted]

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3gmzqr wrote

You are incorrect in stating that this information answers his question. Almost 1.2 million mall in ballots were cast. This info is in the article.

1,000,000 dem and 187,0000 rep mail in ballots.
1% of dem and 1.8% of rep mail in ballots were discarded.

Republicans were 1.8 times more likely to have their mail-in ballot canceled vs. dems.

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AmbiguousMessages t1_j3gppu9 wrote

If the election was based on the number of mail in ballots that would matter. But it wasn’t. In the overall count more democratic votes were negated.

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5illy_billy t1_j3gxpy0 wrote

You are manipulating statistics to misrepresent the situation. 10,900 D vs. 3,500 R means three times as many dem votes were thrown out as republican. Framing it as a percentage of mail-in ballots cast is deliberately misleading.

Dems voted by mail way more than Republicans. Republican leaders know this and promoted conspiracy theories about mail-in voter fraud, discouraging conservatives from voting by mail. Then they threw out a bunch of mail ballots and whoops! who could have predicted that this would affect dems more?! That’s very convenient for republican leaders, huh.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3h2xqj wrote

Thank you for proving my point. What a great conspiracy. 1% of democratic mail in ballots were discarded.

99% of 1,000,000 were counted correctly.

Percents matter. Proportions matter. Using percents or “3x” with out showing all the raw numbers is not good analysis.

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where the discarded ballots (republican or democrat) impacted the results for that district?

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where ALL mail-in ballots impacted the result for that district?

Most likely not, because they are a rounding error when compared to the in-person voting.

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SecurelyObscure t1_j3h0b63 wrote

>Republicans were 1.8 times more likely to have their mail-in ballot canceled vs. dems.

We'd have to know the number of ballots that were cured, and therefore didn't count towards the number of cancelled votes, to see if party is a significant indicator. 4 of the six counties that outright refused to cure ballots lean heavily red.

Also need to normalize by demographics like age and educational attainment, which would impact the ability to follow the voting instructions.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3h3909 wrote

Fair enough. That “1.8 times” is just an alarming way to manipulate the raw numbers, just like the articles headline.

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Thecrawsome t1_j3gti27 wrote

In 2020, Democrats voted by mail 3 to 1, which is the reason why the GOP decided to do this

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3gmuoq wrote

This info is in the article. 1,000,000 dem and 187,0000 rep mail in ballots.

1% of dem and 1.8% of rep mail in ballots were discarded.

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AmbiguousMessages t1_j3gpqet wrote

If the election was based on the number of mail in ballots that would matter. But it wasn’t. In the overall count more democratic votes were negated.

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MetaGoldenfist t1_j3iid9u wrote

It says 1,000,000 mail in ballots were for Shapiro and 187,000 mail in were for Mastriano. In terms of which party’s ballots were more likely to be discarded it says this: “Democrats had 10,920 votes thrown out, about half for lacking secrecy envelopes. Republicans saw 3,503 ballots forfeited. Independents and third parties amounted to 1,731 votes that did not count in the fall election.”

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3ij7el wrote

Yes.

10,920 votes from 1,000,000 is 1%.

3,503 from 187,000 is 1.8%.

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MetaGoldenfist t1_j3ijnq0 wrote

Who cares about the percentage. The article doesn’t mention percentage but you keep mentioning it. That doesn’t change the actual fact that more Democrats had their mail in ballots discarded. It also doesn’t change the fact that the envelope and date law that the state Supreme Court upheld is straight up voter suppression.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3ik0mz wrote

More democrats did because more people voted democratic. Not because they were targeted.

If as many republicans voted, the numbers would be reverse.

Percentage of a whole is important because it allows you to make comparisons.

Make things proportional.

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MetaGoldenfist t1_j3ikfb8 wrote

Your missing the important piece which is that more people voted democratic by mail so of course statistically more dems would have their mail in ballots be wrong but ALSO the Supreme Court upholding the stupid law making casting mail in ballots more complicated bc of the date/signature/envelope law is blatant voter suppression bc they know dems are more likely to vote by mail. Either way it didn’t work.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3j0edy wrote

Do you think I am missing those points, I am one of the few people who read the article.

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