I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl

Submitted by CoversJLo t3_10ryc2t in IAmA

Hi, I'm Jason Logan, AKA J Lo. I am a Senior Sports Betting Analyst for Covers. I began as a shift-working content editor before Super Bowl XXXIX (2005), and now I bring sports betting joy to the masses in weekly TV segments, podcasts, and unique views on the daily betting odds. My NFL Underdogs column is a staple for football bettors.

With the Super Bowl around the corner, I want to answer any questions that new or experienced bettors have about betting on the Super Bowl.

Ask me anything!

Proof: https://imgur.com/a/2HNI2u9

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ColinMac0 t1_j6ydejn wrote

What is the best pick for Gatorade color in your opinion?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ye2fs wrote

I always toss something on water/clear, because I know there will be a jug of water on the sideline. It used to come up a lot, but you've got to think Gatorade has some deal in place now. So team colors would be live (Red/Green). Water is out there at 5/1.

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ColinMac0 t1_j6yimcf wrote

Makes a lot of sense, thanks!

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adamcoe t1_j6z5lwa wrote

My buddies and I bet a bottle of scotch on that every year. I've won twice, once with orange and once with yellow. Seems like mostly lighter colours most of the time, you don't see red or purple very often.

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ColinMac0 t1_j71x70d wrote

That’s a fun tradition. Good luck this year!

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JaMo8600 t1_j6yht57 wrote

How many Costco hotdogs do you think you could eat before you died?

What would you set the total at?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yilgy wrote

Die instantly or eventually?

I think my max at one time was 3, and I heard angels afterwards. I think it was angels. Could have been my gut crying.

It's the best deal in the world and I have a weakness for the dollar HDs.

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CoversMike t1_j6ydm5c wrote

Has there ever been a Super Bowl bet you regretted NOT making?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yej5u wrote

I didn't take KC live ML against the Niners a few years back. You knew they were coming back and outscored them 21-0 in the 4Q. I was dumb not to jump on the in-game odds.

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ecovironfuturist t1_j6z0p6h wrote

Who is going to win, and what will the score be?

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PeanutSalsa t1_j6ye62z wrote

What makes a sportsbook legal? What makes a sportsbook illegal?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yffdz wrote

The quick version of this is a legal book would be licensed, regulated and monitored under a gaming control board (state by state) in a state that allows for sports betting. An illegal book wouldn't be licensed and fall under those regulations or would be operating/taking money in a state that doesn't allow for betting. These illegal books are usually operated outside of the country's borders, like offshore. We have a great industry news page on Covers that gets into all the ins and outs of this.

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DrJawn t1_j6ygtrv wrote

In your opinion, what do the Eagles need to do to win?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yhjtz wrote

Same thing they've done all year: get out to an early lead. Philly has been so good out of the blocks and in first halves, that opponents have to abandon their playbook and go pass-heavy to catch up. The Eagles' run game then chokes them out in the 2H, grinding out first downs on the ground and eating up the clock/possession. When KC does have the ball, you've got to protect against any deeper passes and limit Mahomes to short/intermediate throws and get good pressure with the front four, which Philly has done all year. Easier said than done however.

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Agreeable_Pomelo_542 t1_j6yiegb wrote

How much do you think the spread of Super Bowl 57 will change between now and Feb. 12?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ykich wrote

Depends on those injured KC players. If we get some positive updates, then this could go to pick'em. I think there are plenty of public players who would jump on Mahomes & Co. as underdogs too. When the odds opened and the move went to Eagles -2.5, I said this could very well come back and close KC -1. It was the lookahead line before championship games and many books opened SBLVII with KC as big as -1.5.

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GoalNo5817 t1_j6yd8la wrote

Hey thanks for doing this! Is there a certain player you could see being an x-factor for the Chiefs with many injuries?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ydn5z wrote

Skyy Moore is one that could be really good - or really bad. We've seen him struggle with fumbles this year but his speed could break off a big one, either on special teams or receiving.

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ydtka wrote

Given the injuries to the other KC WRs, his receptions and yardage props aren't live yet. I will be looking at his Overs if some WRs sit out.

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HarlemHeat721 t1_j6ydzqj wrote

What's the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yeqo4 wrote

Betting too much and on too much. Just because it's a big game doesn't mean you need to bet big. Always risk what you're comfortable losing and narrow down your wagers to the ones you feel best about.

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AnotherDrunkCanadian t1_j6ye9mi wrote

You've likely heard about the octopus that had an incredible lucky win rate when it came to betting... what are your thoughts? How do you compare?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ygi5d wrote

If we're talking the Octopus that picks games, I don't know if I can compete with that thing. They're crazy smart and can fit themselves into a pickle jar. I have a hard time getting into most cars.

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AnotherDrunkCanadian t1_j6yhav5 wrote

Yeah, thats the guy. Like... its just lucky bullshit, right? Kinda like if you do a million coin tosses, you'll eventually get 10 heads in a row... but man... maybe he does have superhuman powers... I mean over and above the pickle jar thing

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ykwmv wrote

If it came down to my money riding on an Octopus vs. some other animal picking the winner, I'm ride-or-die Octopus.

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yfmwm wrote

Are we talking about Octopus props (player scores TD/2pt) or that famous Octopus that predicted the Super Bowl winner?

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reddit455 t1_j6yhl97 wrote

​

If I were to bet on the winner today.. would the payout be the same if I placed the same bet in week 1?

​

what's the most obscure thing people bet on (that's not directly related to action on the field including the coin toss)?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yiaef wrote

Nope. You could have gotten the Eagles around +4,000 to win the Super Bowl before the start of the season, while Chiefs were +750 range. Now the Super Bowl moneyline is Eagles -125/Chiefs +105.

As for the silly bets you can make on the Super Bowl circus, I know some offshore operators will allow wagering on commercials. Like, which one will air first: Bud Light or Doritos. Wild stuff.

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Kazama23 t1_j6z3shm wrote

Betting on commercials is wild because I work in the movie trailer business, and when I have a spot in the Super Bowl I definitely know when it will play. 🤷‍♂️

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BrentAndrews79 t1_j6yhyfc wrote

AJ Brown o72.5 Rec yards or DeVonta Smith o61.5

Which eagles receiver is more likely to hit their number?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yj7nm wrote

61.5 is a good number for Smith Over, as he's out there as big as 65.5. Sneed's health is big for this one. Concussions are tough to gauge his recovery.

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Flynty4 t1_j6yi0yr wrote

Do you see any changes for both Philly and KC in terms of what their game plans have been leading up to this game?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yjj0r wrote

The WR injuries for KC could impact the Chiefs game plan. Andy Reid was optimistic JuJu could be back at practice once they return. They may not be able to stretch the field if they're missing some deep threats.

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GoalNo5817 t1_j6yikw1 wrote

Best Super Bowl MVP bet (who isn’t a QB)?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yk1g3 wrote

Kelce, especially if the KC WRs are thin. He could score a TD or two and that's MVP material. He's out there 13/1 at some books, which is good when compared to odds of +850 elsewhere.

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noshore4me t1_j6yy619 wrote

No way Jason Kelce will put up numbers like that from his position.

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yn7w5 wrote

Thanks so much for those that tossed questions at me. If anyone has any further questions on Super Bowl betting or my insights you can reach me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CoversJLo

Good luck betting the Big Game.

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BrentAndrews79 t1_j6yco1c wrote

What’s your most memorable Super Bowl bet?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ycxk7 wrote

Sorry, I read "comfortable". Memorable would be taking Timberlake to cover a Prince Song at the Super Bowl in Minnesota a few years back. He played "I would die for you" which was awesome. Big Prince fan.

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6ydcjf wrote

I got it at +140 when it opened and I think it closed -120 at an online book.

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NHL_SUCKS_HARD t1_j6yevb0 wrote

The Super Bowl has almost become an annoyance for me considering we are seeing my arch nemesis, the Chiefs play in the big game seemingly every year.
How far away are we from seeing the Chargers play in the Super Bowl one day?

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yfw3n wrote

The Bolts made the right move in dumping Lombardi and as a Cowboys fans, Kellen Moore comes with some positives as an OC. He should have Herbert slinging it all over the place. You guys just gotta stay healthy and hope Mahomes gets bored. GL!

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Mike_p17 t1_j6yrkgt wrote

Who's your ideal halftime show? any performer dead or alive?

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Chesspi64 t1_j6yw0s4 wrote

I'm not a sports bettor (at least not with real money) but I found your site after my favorite sports picking game (on ESPN) went down and I love using Covers now! I guess a question is: what's it like when you get a really large bet? :)

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noshore4me t1_j6yy0oj wrote

Did you actually pay for someone else's shoes to put in glass boxes? Why?

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shadowpawn t1_j6zf4t0 wrote

How is my bet looking? First score a safety.

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Rickybones t1_j75ufd3 wrote

Favorite sportsbook? Least?

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Ashe_SDMF t1_j77hj1q wrote

Which team are you betting on?

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huh_phd t1_j7a2kny wrote

At the risk of sounding rude, why are so people entranced by sports? I just hope they have fun! Do you hope both teams have fun?

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