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TXKAP t1_j6y7q7m wrote

Bleak question, but can we expect more affordable housing once the boomers depart this earth?

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wsj OP t1_j6yc3wd wrote

I hear several topics wrapped in the question, TXKAP... :) On a less bleak note, demographics play an important role in housing, but not the only dominant role. Cost of construction (materials, labor, fees, etc.), financing (interest rates), labor markets (wages and incomes) and importantly, land zoning, also play major roles in the availability of affordable homes. After all, when boomers came of age, the construction industry offered a NEW home for every budget, from low-cost Sears homes, which were boxed and trucked to the build site, to a large volume of master-planned suburban communities, and all the way to high-end custom homes. And those were in addition to the existing home supply.

However, in most municipalities, zoning regulations were redesigned in the 1970-1990s, which created artificial barriers and elevated the costs of development. Many of those zoning regulations remain on the books today, even though the US population has grown significantly since then.

On top of this, we overlay the impact of the 2008-09 housing bust, when a large number of local and regional construction firms left the industry. The net effect has been a significant underbuilding over the past decade and a half, just as the millennial generation came of home-buying age. With less supply and a lot more demand, not surprisingly, we ended up with much higher prices.

In brief, we could have more affordable housing today if we made a more concerted effort, at the local level, to adjust zoning and work with developers and construction companies to meet the level of population growth we’ve experienced. We are seeing movement in that direction, along with some technological innovation (e.g. 3D-printed homes). In fact, just the past week, a company managed to push concrete-printing to a second-story for a home in Houston.
Moreover, modular housing technology has also come a long way with some great products. But financing for modular/prefab homes remains stuck in past decades. We can do better on that end, as well.
I believe that we can still enjoy our boomer parents and grandparents AND build more affordable housing. - George

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Other_Exercise t1_j8tpf24 wrote

Thanks for the answer. I hadn't thought so much about materials. In theory, could wood be used a lot more than it is? I know nothing, yet seems strange why timber can be so expensive.

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