CrassostreaVirginica t1_iqwrfuf wrote on October 3, 2022 at 5:42 PM

Hello, and thanks for this AMA.

I had read a few years ago that there was an ongoing debate about how stable evolutionary change is. I.e. does it mostly occur at a constant rate (outside of special circumstances like human-caused selective breeding) or are species largely stable most of the time and undergo periods of more rapid change.

This may be too broad a question, but is there a consensus about which, if either, is more accurate?

Also, is there any sort of consensus view among mathematical biologists about any aspect of the Jurassic Park character Ian Malcolm?

UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwu0e2 wrote on October 3, 2022 at 5:59 PM

Those are great questions. I'm afraid I will have to duck the first one because that isn't my area of expertise. I primarily work in developmental biology/pattern formation and epidemiology.
That said, there are lots of really interesting questions about stability and robustness of eco systems, which can be tackled using tools similar to the ones I employ.

In terms of Ian Malcolm, I'm pleased to think a mathematician was important enough to be one of the few people who should be afforded a sneak preview of Jurassic Park. I think they could have worked a little bit harder on his explanations of the mathematics of chaos in the film.
I think the butterfly effect is perhaps one of the most misunderstood "popular concepts" in all of science. It's an attempt to explain the fact that chaotic systems (like the weather) are typically extremely sensitive to their initial conditions, but I think it's been misappropriated to suggest we can calculate the probability of a hurricane arising from any flap of a butterfly's wings, which is not possible.

UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwu555 wrote on October 3, 2022 at 5:59 PM

Whilst each flap of a butterfly’s wings does change the air pressure around it, this fluctuation quickly dissipates and is incredibly small in comparison to the large-scale changes in air pressure which determine the weather. Within a few centimetres of a flapping butterfly the disturbance it causes will have been dissipated by the surrounding air molecules, making it difficult to imagine how the minute changes caused by butterfly’s wing flaps could be amplified fast enough to manifestly change the forecasted weather to the degree required to trigger or avert a tornado.