94746382926 t1_j7v4gre wrote on February 9, 2023 at 5:04 PM

Reply to comment by Vericeon in Renewables are on track to satiate the world's appetite for electricity by ForHidingSquirrels

The IEA has long history of greatly underestimating the adoption of renewables. To the point where I question if the Oil lobby influences their reports. Every single year they revise their estimates and they're always an underestimate. We are currently way above their best case predictions from 5 or 10 years ago. For some reason they always try to model the growth as a linear graph when it has clearly been following an S curve for quite some time now.

goodsam2 t1_j7vltou wrote on February 9, 2023 at 6:51 PM

Today we are past their best scenarios in like 50 years. The report is honestly baffling. it's also been like that for a decade.

https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/

dontpet t1_j7vt028 wrote on February 9, 2023 at 7:35 PM

The article includes this quote.

>“For many years the IEA earned the reputation of vastly underestimating renewable energy growth,” he said, “so there might be a tendency to bend over backwards and err on the side of exuberant optimism.”

Did they give inflated electrons this time? The report itself says

>Our outlook for 2023 to 2025 shows that renewable power generation is set to increase more than all other sources combined, with an annualised growth of over 9%.

I get confused at that point not knowing if they mean any of three things.

9% growth in energy output annually

9% growth of installation of equipment compared to the previous year

9% growth of equipment from the previous accumulated

Anyway, hope they have vastly underestimated as usual. Every time I look into their assumptions they did a significant bias toward minimal growth.

Yesterday I looked at their projections for our mining and minerals needs for example and they were so pessimistic and already demonstrably wrong.