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real-duncan t1_j7rkz1e wrote

Reply to comment by Surur in What's your estimation for the minimum size of global population required for preserving modern civilization with advanced technology and medicine, and even progressing further? by Evgeneey

Yep. But that’s not the future being predicted in these models.

The expected future is a peak at 12, 16, or 20 billion (depending on assumptions) and then a demographic decline for a century or two. No sudden crash, just below replacement birth rates becoming the norm.

During those centuries of declining population the economics we’ve been using for the last 300 (?) years won’t work.

Working on a response to this predicted new world should be an urgent area of huge funding and interest. Instead Japan is announcing trying to turn around there birth rates hoping the future isn’t coming.

Interesting times ahead.

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metarinka t1_j7spv2t wrote

The closest model we have is what happened during the plague when death's caused a labor shortage. Which drives up the price of labor, which is a good thing. OR we are going to find it also races to create more automation as the ROI on a $400K robot is easier when a google employee makes $400K a year than when a McDonald's employee makes $20K a year.

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Wasabi_Wei t1_j7t5ay7 wrote

You realize that the crown passed a law to prevent labor capitalizing on the market after the plague, right? Causing the Peasant Revolt in 1381. When gains happen to favor the rich, it's the market at work. When workers get paid, laws get passed to protect the rich. That is history, still happening.

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real-duncan t1_j7ss2pg wrote

It’s not in any way a relevant comparison.

The Black Death was a sudden decline.

This will be a slow motion demographic move through a series of unusual states of population mix as the various cadres go through the stages of their lives.

Your answers are solving some of the wrong problems.

When everyone knows there will be less consumers next year and even less in a decade and so forth what is the incentive for future investment? Using the current assumptions means the whole system collapses. So the assumptions must change. No amount of focusing on robots and that side of things will address these issues.

Will the robots change things as you suggest and do we need to work on preparing for that? Yes. Plenty of interesting thought work to do as you suggest.

Is that enough to deal with a downward demand curve being the norm for centuries? No.

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