My timelines have my 50% range for AGI centered around 2024 (late 2024 to be fair from recollection, and at this point I wouldn't be shocked by earlier). Honestly though, I'd have to see something significant to really speed up my timelines more meaningfully than 'occurring inside the range expected'. Something like evidence of progress on strong AGI instead of weak. My timelines for that still have strongly operationalized (not quite the same as strong I suppose) AGI up around 2030.