Submitted by Peugeot905 t3_10mvirk in Futurology
chin-ki-chaddi t1_j678ugj wrote
This is something all developing countries will discover: electric vehicles are much less complex machines and can be built with a far smaller capital expenditure and technology transfer.
This won't happen in the immediate future because almost every Li-ion cell produced right now is spoken for. However, once there's a glut of cells in the mid-20s, there will be free for all for all adventurous businessmen to start EV assembly. Quite similar to what we saw in the 2014-2017 era when all the cells weren't scooped up by the Teslas and BYDs.
czk_21 t1_j67dhzm wrote
there will be bigger demand for batteries in mid-20s as north american,european and east asian markets going for more electric vehicles and 30s might be even worse- by 2035 there will be ban on non-electric cars sales in EU, lithium prices will skyrocket
only from 2021price of lithium went up 4x, not sure there will be ever glut of cells, africans with their low purchasing power wont be able to compete with developed countries easily
chin-ki-chaddi t1_j67p3yj wrote
Nope, more and more Lithium mines are set to begin production in the next few years. That 4x price had a huge impact on the investment environment of Lithium mining. There will be a glut, especially with China's economy taking a major hit.
czk_21 t1_j67xmgp wrote
yes there will be more mines that doesnt mean lithium will be cheap with ever rising demand, most of avalable deposits are in dry regions and you need lot of water to process lithium, there might big major shortage of available lithium by 2025
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/
china too has plans for EVs- as of 2035, 50% of new cars sold in the country will be either electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles, and 50% of new cars will be conventional hybrids, which still run entirely on gasoline.
I doubt that batteries will be particularly cheap in coming years, china economy is slowing down but it will still have hefty 4% growth
Surur t1_j6832xk wrote
> you need lot of water to process lithium,
This bit is just a big lie. That water is due to evaporative extraction of lithium from brine, and it is just salty water which is useless in any case.
Dont fall for the propaganda. Evaporative extraction is the most environmentally friendly since it uses the sun to do most of the hard work.
> china too has plans for EVs- as of 2035, 50% of new cars sold in the country will be either electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles,
It's already 30%, so in theory demand will only double. Actually it will hit 90% soon, but that again is only 3x as much.
AndroidMyAndroid t1_j67omx9 wrote
Not every battery is lithium ion. Cheap cars for poor countries will use cheap batteries.
czk_21 t1_j67w5yw wrote
true but what cheap viable alternative for vehicles do you have in mind?
Surur t1_j6837qc wrote
Sodium batteries. Half the cost, but bulkier.
AndroidMyAndroid t1_j6bdrjm wrote
Nickel or even lead acid for very low range, low cost batteries until something else comes along. Difference use cases will have different solutions.
DHFranklin t1_j68nqnz wrote
However this is perfect for buses. That cost being split by 50 riders at a time or exported. Kenya would be one of the cheapest places to import from with a weaker currency.
sfox76 t1_j67zx6z wrote
Most of the major auto manufacturers are investing heavily in NonLithium power banks and more efficient forms of storage.
gurgelblaster t1_j67m7y4 wrote
This is why you build catenaries and overhead lines and have small or no batteries.
chin-ki-chaddi t1_j67p776 wrote
That's called a train/tram and I am a big proponent. Wherever feasible, we should have more trains.
Unmouldeddoor3 t1_j67r415 wrote
No, it’s called a trolleybus - fit it with a little battery for emergencies and you’ve got yourself the most flexible and efficient option out there.
ForgedByStars t1_j682n8n wrote
> most flexible
Well you still need the overhead lines in place. But fit it with medium-sized batteries, and you could probably get away with having overhead lines only on some sections of the route network.
Missingtale t1_j67r8gu wrote
It's a trolleybus, used to be quiet common until the late sixties but most systems then got removed. Some still survive, maybe hybrid solutions could make a comeback I don't know why they went out of use, probably lack of flexibility. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trolleybus_systems_in_the_United_Kingdom
Surur t1_j67t34l wrote
That's not going to work in most places in Africa as it would mean a lot of investment in infrastructure by the government and also high ongoing maintenance costs.
This solution uses the same roads as everyone else and is much easier to roll-out, and does not require a massive upfront investment to be useful.
gurgelblaster t1_j67t9iw wrote
Roads, famously, are not infrastructure and require no maintenance.
Surur t1_j67v8fe wrote
Imagine a road with a pothole vs a train track with eroded ballast lol.
Or a road with a pothole vs the copper being stolen from an overhead line lol.
One does seem bit more resilent than the other hahaha.
gurgelblaster t1_j682x7l wrote
I agree that building and maintaining infrastructure is harder in a country that has been (and is still being) continually looted by (primarily western) capital for the last century or so.
Suthek t1_j67u88k wrote
The issue with that is that that's out of the hand of the company. For that you need infrastructure, so the cities have to pitch in.
It might be a better system, but it's probably harder to convince municipalities.
gurgelblaster t1_j67v3mh wrote
Yes I agree that more economic planning would improve things.
Surur t1_j67vwiy wrote
Or, you know, you can be realistic when proposing solutions.
gurgelblaster t1_j67y6us wrote
Sure building buses with batteries that are not possible to procure is much more realistic than implementing a system which has been used globally for something like a century.
Surur t1_j67zb2t wrote
So we did not built 10 million EVs last year, right. That's fantasy as it's "impossible to procure" batteries.
What universe do you live in again?
gurgelblaster t1_j67zhfz wrote
I encourage you to read upthread for the context of my first post.
Tooblicker t1_j68199b wrote
Corporate speak.
Diesel engines in developing companies aren't complex, labor is cheap and emissions isn't a concern. The real issue is electric grid vs. diesel price. Chances are diesel is more affordable and available.
chin-ki-chaddi t1_j685jpj wrote
Emissions are not a concern? Are you living in Mars already?
Tooblicker t1_j69cuc1 wrote
Have you been to a developing country? Be glad it's not coal-powered. Public transportation is still loads better than a Prius commuter.
chin-ki-chaddi t1_j69dw63 wrote
I've lived all my life in India. Do you know what an idling diesel engine spews out? Huge amounts of particulate matter, NOx, CO, not to mention the CO2 that's boiling our planet.
Johnmik5400 t1_j6a8csj wrote
Wrong, this isnt an answer in the developed wotld, let alone here. This is a way of keeping people down and under control. Nobody gives a tinkers damn about letting these nations, full of corruption bc of the Wests meddling and the IMF not allowing Africans to run their own destinys. I grow so tired of liberals telling who, what, how. The US grid cant handle elect battery trans. and they KNOW IT. You can't displace 1 million btus of energy from gssoline and diesel replaced with batteries? Its a pipe- nightmare Liberals cant do math or economics. Just add up all personal transport , and the btus required. The renewables arent even close. I dont want to hear the arguements. They are ridiculous. CO2, CO2, CO2, CO2, CO2,C O FRICKIN' 2!! Its a gas!!. Its apart of living processes. It rises and falls! Over eons, millenia, centuries. Ice cores prove the OPPOSITE of the so called Al Gore " BOILING OCEANS!!!", spittal included. He spews this shit, then hops on ONE OF HIS JETS. The GORE'S entire fortune came from????.........OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM. While you take a cold shower, he will be in his big fat hot tub with his whores!! People like me are sick of this shit and we are not taking it anymore. These psychotics will NOT RUN MY LIFE. I say, if u want to live with 1 square of T paper lime Sheryl Crowe, fine, dont ask me to. When I see Diaper Joe, Al, Nancy, AOC, ET. AL. riding bikes to and from their meetings and rowing, Sailing across the ocean, then I might be convinced. Hydrogen & all hydrocarbon fuel cells can be an answer to much greater efficiencies, but thats not the goal. The goal is keeping me in the walls, 15 min limit to my travel. CONTROL, WAKE UP, ITS CONTROL OF MY AND YOUR SOULS! This is EVIL. Tesla will be like the Netscape browser was 25 yrs ago. Old, tired. Elon will sell it. It has raked in billions in govt mobey from incentives. Its a boutique toy for the rich at best. A real H2 tech is out and is hardly noticed. Everyone is worried about WHERE hydrogen comes from, but they dobt worry about the poor, children mining lithium in Africa with sticks in mud and being poisoned. Europe wants Biodiesel. It comes from palm oil, cut down native forests to grow. Mon crop kills the soil, exploits workers, yet, libs , rich in the West say, Oh, Im Enviromental. Just cut the enviro, and you get what they REALLY ARE
Johnmik5400 t1_j6a8q9e wrote
Are you a Chi comm telling about capitalism?
cybercuzco t1_j691bpd wrote
There won’t be a glut in the mid 20’s. Mid 30’s yes but not mid 20’s. We’ve only electrified 5% of the worlds yearly auto production. Glut will happen when we’re approaching 95%.
Surur t1_j6a2noa wrote
> We’ve only electrified 5% of the worlds yearly auto production
Probably closer to 10%.
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