We know EV sales have hit 90% market share in Norway, but there has always been a question of whether they are an outlier and if the rest of the world will follow. Multiple European countries are now showing that Norway was just the forerunner and are rapidly following in their footsteps.

In December 2022, new passenger car registrations in Germany increased by 38% YoY to 314,318, the highest monthly result in 42 months. The most significant result was the massive surge of plug-in electric car sales, both all-electric and plug-in hybrid. In December, 174,126 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in Germany, 114% more than a year ago, and a new all-time record. The market share of rechargeable passenger cars in December amounted to 55.4%, a new record, far beyond the previous one of 39.4%, and a true sign of the times that plug-ins are now in the majority.

The reason behind the surge is largely related to the reduction of incentives for BEVs and elimination of incentives for PHEVs from January 1, 2023, meaning January numbers will likely be a lot lower, but there is little doubt that ICE cars are now legacy cars increasingly relegated to the second-hand market.

Notably, the UK also saw record numbers of new electric car registrations in December 2022, with 42,284 all-electric cars (BEVs) and 8,367 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) registered. This led to a market share of 32.9% and 6.5% respectively or 39.4% combined. The total number of new plug-in electric car registrations in December was 50,651, an increase of 41% YoY. For the year 2022, more than 368,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered, reaching an average market share of 22.8%. This is a new record and notably better than 2021 (305,281 and 18.5% share).

Given the 14-20 year replacement cycle of passenger cars, it appears likely by 2050 there will be no ICE cars on the roads at all, which should go a long way to meeting CO2 emission targets.

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Surur:

We know EV sales have hit 90% market share in Norway, but there has always been a question of whether they are an outlier and if the rest of the world will follow. Multiple European countries are now showing that Norway was just the forerunner and are rapidly following in their footsteps.

In December 2022, new passenger car registrations in Germany increased by 38% YoY to 314,318, the highest monthly result in 42 months. The most significant result was the massive surge of plug-in electric car sales, both all-electric and plug-in hybrid. In December, 174,126 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in Germany, 114% more than a year ago, and a new all-time record. The market share of rechargeable passenger cars in December amounted to 55.4%, a new record, far beyond the previous one of 39.4%, and a true sign of the times that plug-ins are now in the majority.

The reason behind the surge is largely related to the reduction of incentives for BEVs and elimination of incentives for PHEVs from January 1, 2023, meaning January numbers will likely be a lot lower, but there is little doubt that ICE cars are now legacy cars increasingly relegated to the second-hand market.

Notably, the UK also saw record numbers of new electric car registrations in December 2022, with 42,284 all-electric cars (BEVs) and 8,367 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) registered. This led to a market share of 32.9% and 6.5% respectively or 39.4% combined. The total number of new plug-in electric car registrations in December was 50,651, an increase of 41% YoY. For the year 2022, more than 368,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered, reaching an average market share of 22.8%. This is a new record and notably better than 2021 (305,281 and 18.5% share).

Given the 14-20 year replacement cycle of passenger cars, it appears likely by 2050 there will be no ICE cars on the roads at all, which should go a long way to meeting CO2 emission targets.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/10as0xk/german_ev_and_plugin_car_sales_hit_554_market/j45w7xw/

>Given the 14-20 year replacement cycle of passenger cars, it appears likely by 2050 there will be no ICE cars on the roads at all, which should go a long way to meeting CO2 emission targets.

Long haul trucks, rest of the world, assuming there’s enough metals for batteries, panels, and cars (lithium got expensive again this year) — that’s super optimistic.

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UghHef_XJ-U

I'm not watching a 50 minute video lol, but they are likely wrong.

Do you want to summarize their main points?

I don't think you will see one part of the world going fully EV and not dragging the rest of the world along with them.

Maxojir is a channel that basically exclusively deals with metals and oil supplies. The description of the video is the summary:

>The math doesn't work out for the Green New Deal; 100% green energy and electric vehicles EVs idea. Resource constraints of Nickel, Lithium, and Rare Earth Neodymium will hinder the EV revolution, and limits to Silver, Tellurium and Vanadium won't allow all clean green power generation nor feasible grid storage batteries. Solar panels, wind turbines, vanadium redox battery and more.

This is a physical reality. We'll get some type of partial transition but not a complete one or even close to it. The resources aren't there.

There are three things needed for a green economy. Batteries for cars, batteries for stationary storage (storing solar), and metals for solar panels. Without all three, we'll have to burn fossil fuels. There isn't enough material for more than about just less 2/3 transition and that's assuming 0 growth, perfect mining, and that the material goes 100% towards this purpose when in reality the material often has other industries that need it so it's divvied up. In reality, we're looking at about 1/3 transition.

Also, lithium prices have skyrocketed already:

• https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-prices/

Please read this article - it's not that long, but will give you great insight.

https://thebulletin.org/2017/05/clean-energy-and-rare-earths-why-not-to-worry/

The short of it is that this concern has been raised in numerous areas, and is just fearmongering. There are always alternate options or more reserves, and high prices promote the development of both.

For example we don't need rare earth magnets for EVs - most electric motors do not use rare earth magnets for example. Lithium reserves have doubled over the last 10 years, and batteries are one of the most fungible items in the green revolution - you can even make one from compressed air.

In short - don't listen to the fearmongers - their predictions never come true.

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There's a reason why no cars run on compressed gas batteries though.

Sure, but cities can, saving the lithium for cars.

Do cities consume a lot of lithium batteries right now?

I can point to several stationary storage projects, so yes.

E.g.

https://www.bestmag.co.uk/storage-start-romeo-power-completes-battery-pack-plant/

https://www.power-eng.com/energy-storage/227-mw-908-mwh-of-battery-storage-now-online-in-southern-california/

How does this compare to volume used in cars though?

It's a small but growing share. By 2030 the storage market is expected to be as large as the whole current Li battery market all by itself.

>, and batteries are one of the most fungible items in the green revolution

Not when they have to be portable. A case for storage batteries can be made.

>you can even make one from compressed air.

Was tried with modern materials a decade+ ago. Wasn't feasible.

Dr Lovins isn't talking about EROEI. I'm sure all the lithium we need is in the ocean itself. Yet when things are dispersed too much, it becomes economically infeasible to gather it up.

There 800 trillions worth of gold in the oceans but it's so dispersed, it's not worth gathering it. Dr. Fritz Haber of Haber-Bosch fame tried working that out for the better part of a decade in the 1920s to help pay for Germany's reparations.

New tech may help. It may not. It's not a magical genie that makes absolutely everything possible.

There is no need to guess - check the US government's report:

https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information

>Four mineral operations in Australia, two brine operations each in Argentina and Chile, and two brine and one mineral operation in China accounted for the majority of world lithium production. Additionally, smaller operations in Brazil, China, Portugal, the United States, and Zimbabwe also contributed to world lithium production. Owing to the resurgence in demand and increased prices of lithium in 2021, established lithium operations worldwide resumed capacity expansion plans which were postponed in 2020 in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

> Lithium supply security has become a top priority for technology companies in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Strategic alliances and joint ventures among technology companies and exploration companies continued to be established to ensure a reliable, diversified supply of lithium for battery suppliers and vehicle manufacturers.

> Brinebased lithium sources were in various stages of development in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, China, and the United States; mineral-based lithium sources were in various stages of development in Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Congo (Kinshasa), Czechia, Finland, Germany, Mali, Namibia, Peru, Portugal, Serbia, Spain, the United States, and Zimbabwe; lithium-clay sources were in various stages of development in Mexico and the United States; and a searlesite source was in development in the United States.

Stop being such a sceptic - it does not make you sound smarter.

Leave it to the people whose job it is to solve these problems.

Isn't December high because the EU equivalent of the US' Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard means automakers have to move X number of products or be fined by the regulatory body?

This number is heavenly skewed towards EV as December was the last chance to get the 10k subsidy for EVs.

Sure, but it's from 40-55%, not 10 to 55%. The trend is still secure. I think Dec 2023 will be even higher.

Plugin share Dec Germany

• 2019 4%
• 2020 26%
• 2021 39%
• 2022 55%

Soon you are going to look foolish for buying a new car with an old drive train.

I'm just saying the December figure is misleading as people where rushing to buy a EV in last year's so they don't have to register it this year and loose out on massive subsidies.

Registration numbers for January and February will probably be lower than average because people rushed to purchase laste year.

Also I don't honk saying thing such as a person will look foolish is a good attitude. There are legitimate reasons to still drive a normal car. And many of these reasons will not be Adresse or solved in all regions of Germany or the world.

And this car shaming is kinda stupid.

The infrastructure is just not jet here for everyone to have a electric car. At the moment you can only really have one if you have garage or house.

I'm not saying there should not be more alternatives to traditional cars or that electric cars are bad.

But I am saying at this moment and I think in the future to. Relying solely on electric cars is not the way. Electric cars are just a part of the solution to a greener future. But not the sole solution.

Kind regards

The EU is going to ban ICE cars by 2035, so its coming irrespective.

Without the infrastructure I don't see that number holding up, I think they'll have to extend that a lot of times

A growing number of motorists will demand that infrastructure, and it will be the most influential part of society first.

It continues to be hilarious that so many people, including "experts", thought this transition would take decades

Norway is an outlier. Its 3million people and a country with the worlds largest sovereign wealth fund at over $1trillion

Currently there are 18million evs and 1.6billion vehicles worldwide, so its less than 2%

Also what is the worlds lithium supply (maybe 130million tonnes?) As you use it and other metals class 1 nickel, copper, chromium as demand grows so will the price. It takes 7 to 10 years to get a mine in production.

Also the Japanese are working on using ammonia for power plants and power marine shipping. There are no co2 emissions and (it can be green you can make it with renewables) and can carry more hydrogen than liquid hydrogen.

> Norway is an outlier.

And Germany just had a 55% plugin market share and UK 39%. An outlier no longer I guess.

> Also what is the worlds lithium supply (maybe 130million tonnes?)

That was 10 years ago. Currently, it's 220 million tonnes. Are you surprised it actually increased, not decreased?

> As you use it and other metals class 1 nickel, copper, chromium as demand grows so will the price

And then you skip to alternatives, such as aluminium instead of copper, and LFP batteries instead of NMC.

> Also the Japanese are working

Japan is about to go bankrupt because they won't admit the EV revolution is happening.

ICE stands for internal combustion engine? I was imagining ICE trains on the road for a second.

Bevs in Germany are 1.3% of the fleet and plugin 1.3% as well in 2022.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1166826/electric-vehicles-market-share-germany/

Lithium prices up 900% last year.

Lots of work on new batteries all the time. But lithium ion has a multi decade headstart and development and production takes years. Any new battery will be 15 years before it is in significant production.

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> Bevs in Germany are 1.3% of the fleet and plugin 1.3% as well in 2022.

I am sure you can recognize an exponential curve when you see one.

> Any new battery will be 15 years before it is in significant production

Not true in the 2020s.

You put misleading info like 55% of market share making it seem as if evs are 55% of the fleet and its no such thing its less than 2% as anyone can simply check for themselves. A graph (esp in the less than 2% range) is not proof of anything. Higher production involves using limited and costly raw materials. Look at how much lithium cost increased in the past year. It has even more demand for grid batteries.

There is also the cost, evs dont really have a cost advantage over icev and there are still range issues (and infrastructure charging stations) and currently thanks to its past planning Germany has among the highest electricity prices in Europe per kwh (so much so that Siemens and other heavy industry have to have subsidized discounted electricity)

With an increased ev fleet, there needs to be more electricity generation to replace all the fossil fuels used and charging at night is not going to do it.

Also the used ev market is questionable due to battery degradation.

Im sure evs will continue to grow but it will take a lot longer and unlikely to be 100%. Tow trucks, heavy equipment will likely be still synthetic fuels.

I'm just going to post this for you again, since you obviously did not read it:

BTW, in your estimation, what percentage of cars on the road in Norway are electric?

We know EV sales have hit 90% market share in Norway, but there has always been a question of whether they are an outlier and if the rest of the world will follow. Multiple European countries are now showing that Norway was just the forerunner and are rapidly following in their footsteps.

In December 2022, new passenger car registrations in Germany increased by 38% YoY to 314,318, the highest monthly result in 42 months. The most significant result was the massive surge of plug-in electric car sales, both all-electric and plug-in hybrid. In December, 174,126 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in Germany, 114% more than a year ago, and a new all-time record. The market share of rechargeable passenger cars in December amounted to 55.4%, a new record, far beyond the previous one of 39.4%, and a true sign of the times that plug-ins are now in the majority.

The reason behind the surge is largely related to the reduction of incentives for BEVs and elimination of incentives for PHEVs from January 1, 2023, meaning January numbers will likely be a lot lower, but there is little doubt that ICE cars are now legacy cars increasingly relegated to the second-hand market.

Notably, the UK also saw record numbers of new electric car registrations in December 2022, with 42,284 all-electric cars (BEVs) and 8,367 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) registered. This led to a market share of 32.9% and 6.5% respectively or 39.4% combined. The total number of new plug-in electric car registrations in December was 50,651, an increase of 41% YoY. For the year 2022, more than 368,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered, reaching an average market share of 22.8%. This is a new record and notably better than 2021 (305,281 and 18.5% share).

Given the 14-20 year replacement cycle of passenger cars, it appears likely by 2050 there will be no ICE cars on the roads at all, which should go a long way to meeting CO2 emission targets.

Again misleading, Germany 1.3% of cars are bev and 1.3 are plugins.

Do you not understand what market share means, or has your education system let you down?

You seem to be a Canadian Czech, so I suspect the former.

I know perfectly well what market share means. You can do a search yourself - "ev market share in Germany" and its less than 2%.

Thank you for confirming that you do not know what market share is. Please get an education.