Surur OP t1_j4brvfi wrote on January 14, 2023 at 4:18 PM

Reply to comment by Aggravating-Bottle78 in German EV and plug-in car sales hit 55.4% market share in December 2022 by Surur

> Bevs in Germany are 1.3% of the fleet and plugin 1.3% as well in 2022.

I am sure you can recognize an exponential curve when you see one.

> Any new battery will be 15 years before it is in significant production

Not true in the 2020s.

Aggravating-Bottle78 t1_j4cgdlg wrote on January 14, 2023 at 6:58 PM

You put misleading info like 55% of market share making it seem as if evs are 55% of the fleet and its no such thing its less than 2% as anyone can simply check for themselves. A graph (esp in the less than 2% range) is not proof of anything. Higher production involves using limited and costly raw materials. Look at how much lithium cost increased in the past year. It has even more demand for grid batteries.

There is also the cost, evs dont really have a cost advantage over icev and there are still range issues (and infrastructure charging stations) and currently thanks to its past planning Germany has among the highest electricity prices in Europe per kwh (so much so that Siemens and other heavy industry have to have subsidized discounted electricity)

With an increased ev fleet, there needs to be more electricity generation to replace all the fossil fuels used and charging at night is not going to do it.

Also the used ev market is questionable due to battery degradation.

Im sure evs will continue to grow but it will take a lot longer and unlikely to be 100%. Tow trucks, heavy equipment will likely be still synthetic fuels.

Surur OP t1_j4ch3yx wrote on January 14, 2023 at 7:03 PM

I'm just going to post this for you again, since you obviously did not read it:

BTW, in your estimation, what percentage of cars on the road in Norway are electric?

We know EV sales have hit 90% market share in Norway, but there has always been a question of whether they are an outlier and if the rest of the world will follow. Multiple European countries are now showing that Norway was just the forerunner and are rapidly following in their footsteps.

In December 2022, new passenger car registrations in Germany increased by 38% YoY to 314,318, the highest monthly result in 42 months. The most significant result was the massive surge of plug-in electric car sales, both all-electric and plug-in hybrid. In December, 174,126 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in Germany, 114% more than a year ago, and a new all-time record. The market share of rechargeable passenger cars in December amounted to 55.4%, a new record, far beyond the previous one of 39.4%, and a true sign of the times that plug-ins are now in the majority.

The reason behind the surge is largely related to the reduction of incentives for BEVs and elimination of incentives for PHEVs from January 1, 2023, meaning January numbers will likely be a lot lower, but there is little doubt that ICE cars are now legacy cars increasingly relegated to the second-hand market.

Notably, the UK also saw record numbers of new electric car registrations in December 2022, with 42,284 all-electric cars (BEVs) and 8,367 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) registered. This led to a market share of 32.9% and 6.5% respectively or 39.4% combined. The total number of new plug-in electric car registrations in December was 50,651, an increase of 41% YoY. For the year 2022, more than 368,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered, reaching an average market share of 22.8%. This is a new record and notably better than 2021 (305,281 and 18.5% share).

Given the 14-20 year replacement cycle of passenger cars, it appears likely by 2050 there will be no ICE cars on the roads at all, which should go a long way to meeting CO2 emission targets.