Submitted by Surur t3_10as0xk in Futurology
Surur OP t1_j46bypy wrote
Reply to comment by FillThisEmptyCup in German EV and plug-in car sales hit 55.4% market share in December 2022 by Surur
I'm not watching a 50 minute video lol, but they are likely wrong.
Do you want to summarize their main points?
I don't think you will see one part of the world going fully EV and not dragging the rest of the world along with them.
FillThisEmptyCup t1_j46e4m7 wrote
Maxojir is a channel that basically exclusively deals with metals and oil supplies. The description of the video is the summary:
>The math doesn't work out for the Green New Deal; 100% green energy and electric vehicles EVs idea. Resource constraints of Nickel, Lithium, and Rare Earth Neodymium will hinder the EV revolution, and limits to Silver, Tellurium and Vanadium won't allow all clean green power generation nor feasible grid storage batteries. Solar panels, wind turbines, vanadium redox battery and more.
This is a physical reality. We'll get some type of partial transition but not a complete one or even close to it. The resources aren't there.
There are three things needed for a green economy. Batteries for cars, batteries for stationary storage (storing solar), and metals for solar panels. Without all three, we'll have to burn fossil fuels. There isn't enough material for more than about just less 2/3 transition and that's assuming 0 growth, perfect mining, and that the material goes 100% towards this purpose when in reality the material often has other industries that need it so it's divvied up. In reality, we're looking at about 1/3 transition.
Also, lithium prices have skyrocketed already:
Surur OP t1_j46f60i wrote
Please read this article - it's not that long, but will give you great insight.
https://thebulletin.org/2017/05/clean-energy-and-rare-earths-why-not-to-worry/
The short of it is that this concern has been raised in numerous areas, and is just fearmongering. There are always alternate options or more reserves, and high prices promote the development of both.
For example we don't need rare earth magnets for EVs - most electric motors do not use rare earth magnets for example. Lithium reserves have doubled over the last 10 years, and batteries are one of the most fungible items in the green revolution - you can even make one from compressed air.
In short - don't listen to the fearmongers - their predictions never come true.
dimsumham t1_j46o0ld wrote
There's a reason why no cars run on compressed gas batteries though.
Surur OP t1_j46ok3h wrote
Sure, but cities can, saving the lithium for cars.
dimsumham t1_j46pdwn wrote
Do cities consume a lot of lithium batteries right now?
Surur OP t1_j46qs74 wrote
I can point to several stationary storage projects, so yes.
E.g.
https://www.bestmag.co.uk/storage-start-romeo-power-completes-battery-pack-plant/
dimsumham t1_j46t1yq wrote
How does this compare to volume used in cars though?
Surur OP t1_j46u3g8 wrote
It's a small but growing share. By 2030 the storage market is expected to be as large as the whole current Li battery market all by itself.
FillThisEmptyCup t1_j46x4td wrote
>, and batteries are one of the most fungible items in the green revolution
Not when they have to be portable. A case for storage batteries can be made.
>you can even make one from compressed air.
Was tried with modern materials a decade+ ago. Wasn't feasible.
Dr Lovins isn't talking about EROEI. I'm sure all the lithium we need is in the ocean itself. Yet when things are dispersed too much, it becomes economically infeasible to gather it up.
There 800 trillions worth of gold in the oceans but it's so dispersed, it's not worth gathering it. Dr. Fritz Haber of Haber-Bosch fame tried working that out for the better part of a decade in the 1920s to help pay for Germany's reparations.
New tech may help. It may not. It's not a magical genie that makes absolutely everything possible.
Surur OP t1_j46yhc0 wrote
There is no need to guess - check the US government's report:
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information
>Four mineral operations in Australia, two brine operations each in Argentina and Chile, and two brine and one mineral operation in China accounted for the majority of world lithium production. Additionally, smaller operations in Brazil, China, Portugal, the United States, and Zimbabwe also contributed to world lithium production. Owing to the resurgence in demand and increased prices of lithium in 2021, established lithium operations worldwide resumed capacity expansion plans which were postponed in 2020 in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic.
> Lithium supply security has become a top priority for technology companies in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Strategic alliances and joint ventures among technology companies and exploration companies continued to be established to ensure a reliable, diversified supply of lithium for battery suppliers and vehicle manufacturers.
> Brinebased lithium sources were in various stages of development in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, China, and the United States; mineral-based lithium sources were in various stages of development in Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Congo (Kinshasa), Czechia, Finland, Germany, Mali, Namibia, Peru, Portugal, Serbia, Spain, the United States, and Zimbabwe; lithium-clay sources were in various stages of development in Mexico and the United States; and a searlesite source was in development in the United States.
Stop being such a sceptic - it does not make you sound smarter.
Leave it to the people whose job it is to solve these problems.
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