MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j43vyul wrote on January 13, 2023 at 12:02 AM

I think it will take longer than that for everything to be electric. You have to consider semi, trains, cargo ships, public transportation in rural areas. I bet it will be 2050.

In 2030 is about the time republican states turn towards ev as California has. Places will have to build more infrastructure for electric vehicles.

The cost for people like me who are stuck with $3,000 vehicles would be a problem then as it is now. I can’t afford to make payments or if an electric vehicle broke down I’d be screwed. I think in 2030 there will be more hybrids being used by people like me and more electric on the road along with their ability to travel farther.

Edit. It’s going to take a long time to replace passenger planes. It takes time to build them and it will take even longer to test them. I bet that will be the last thing converted to electric

sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43x2i7 wrote on January 13, 2023 at 12:10 AM

In China the Wuling Mini has been on sale for years. It has 100 mile range and costs $3000. I see $5000 city cars and 300 mile range cars for the current cost of a Nissan Note ($12000). You can imagine how cheap a used Volt or Bolt would be at that point.

MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j43y7t4 wrote on January 13, 2023 at 12:17 AM

2030 is about the time the ones that haven’t had a battery change will need one. That will be a problem for low income used car buyers.

kmosiman t1_j43y3vl wrote on January 13, 2023 at 12:17 AM

At a certain point it won't matter. CAFE regulations plus the global auto market will be a major factor.

Also consider R&D funding. Manufacturers aren't going to be spending as much on engine technologies so developments will stall out.

I'd love to think that HV's will catch on, but I believe BEV sales equalled HV sales last year.

MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j441jec wrote on January 13, 2023 at 12:40 AM

That’s why I brought up politics as best I could. I think that is slowing us down right now. Not only the infrastructure but the fact there’s so much oil money in politics. Both foreign and domestic.

I think we also need a government trade in program for vehicles if we want to speed up the transition to all electric. We are also going to need lower interest loans for low income families. We also need to develop a longer lasting power source for vehicles and plans for large scale disposal of non recyclable parts. There’s a lot to do on a local scale for each country.

kmosiman t1_j445kvw wrote on January 13, 2023 at 1:09 AM

I think it will all filter down. Today's new EV us 2030's used car market.