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Poly_and_RA t1_j45zmb2 wrote

Reply to comment by farticustheelder in From 300 GW to 3,000 GW per year – a utopia? by manual_tranny

Yepp. People underestimate exponential growth. It took only 11 years here in Norway for electric cars to go from 1% and to 80% of new cars sold. (2011-2022) -- that's the equivalent of +49% per year for over a decade.

Peoples reaction to it tends to be like this:

  • 0.5%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 0.75%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 1.2%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 1.8%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 2.6%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 3.8%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 5.8%: EVs are only suitable for a tiny set of niche applications!
  • 8.7%: EVs are only suitable for a tiny set of niche applications!
  • 13%: Most people will never be well-served by an EV!
  • 20%: Most people will never be well-served by an EV!
  • 30%: An EV can perhaps work as car number 2 for some households
  • 45%: An EV can perhaps work as car number 2 for some households
  • 80%: WOOAAA What just happened? Nobody could've foreseen this!!!! Where did all these EVs *suddenly* and *completely unexpectedly* come from??????

It appears to most people that all the growth came in the last 2-3 years and very suddenly. That's not true. Anyone who was ACTUALLY paying attention would've seen that we've had in the viscinity of 50% year-over-year growth for well over a decade, and anyone who knows basic math knows that if that trend stays, the thing takes over the world completely faster than most people anticipate.

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pieter1234569 t1_j4bonx9 wrote

It only works in Norway because the state pretty much pays for the Tesla. It's Cheaper than ANY other car.

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Poly_and_RA t1_j4cy3yg wrote

The state subsidizes EVs with a grand total of ZERO dollars, so I see no justification for claiming that the state pays for it.

EVs are however exempt from the CO2-tax that ICE-cars pay, depending on how much they pollute per kilometer driven, and that is indeed the main reason why Norway is about 5 years ahead of other countries in EV-adoption.

It's nonsense to claim that it only works in Norway because of this though; many other countries have similar market-share trajectories that are merely a few years behind.

That wasn't the point here though, the point was that people who don't understand exponential growth tend to see it as nothing happening for many years, and then SUDDENLY the thing explodes. Even when the reality is, like in the example-numbers I posted here, that there's pretty steady growth throughout.

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pieter1234569 t1_j4cyffz wrote

> EVs are however exempt from the CO2-tax that ICE-cars pay, depending on how much they pollute per kilometer driven, and that is indeed the main reason why Norway is about 5 years ahead of other countries in EV-adoption.

Yes, that's a subsidy that costs a shit ton of money..... Not getting SUBSTANTIAL TAX INCOME is also a subsidy.

> It's nonsense to claim that it only works in Norway because of this though; many other countries have similar market-share trajectories that are merely a few years behind.

It works in every country, but not every country is willing to spend tens of billions on this. At at least 10k per car, that's what it costs....

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