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stupidcasey t1_j57jn7v wrote

Reply to comment by feelingbutter in How close are we to singularity? Data from MT says very close! by sigul77

Yeah, especially if this article is correct and machine intelligence increases linearly, their won’t be a “Singularity” just the slow obsolescence of humanity, also if we truly are reaching a hard limit on silicon we may never even see that.

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dehehn t1_j58pmoj wrote

There is quantum computing to potentially get us past that limit. And we have distributed cloud computing capacity that means we're no longer limited by the local computing capacity of a small confined space within a single computer.

And the fact that increasing sophistication of software doesn't necessarily require constant increases in computing power to get better results. Our brains aren't that large and have general intelligence and consciousness.

I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions of the article's premise, but I don't see us hitting a brick wall in progress soon.

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stupidcasey t1_j58qtc1 wrote

Well if AI takes exponential growth in processing to maintain linear growth in utility like the artificial proposes the amount of processing power on earth will quickly not be enough without exponentially more transistors that’s just math.

As far as quantum computing quantum supremacy has yet to be demonstrated, also so far increasing the number of cubits in a quantum computer looks like it’s going to be exponentially more difficult as you increase the numbers nullifying any gain you get from quantum computing this is definitely not certain but all that is to say the “Singularity ™” is also definitely not certain.

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