I predict that most colonies, if self sufficiant, will eventually break away from Earth Governments. Earth is hungry for resources, and since worker abuse is strong here, I doubt workers in space will be treated any better.

It'd just the nature of Human socities. They get big. Too big. Then they fracture, and the cycle repeats.

I suspect roughly similar to the initial European colonies in the "new world". The first 100 years or so will be dominated by big corps wanting new resources, and religious zealots wanting "freedom" from the old rules. Just like in the 1500s, only groups with deep pockets will be able to go initially. If those colonies take foot, and become self sufficient (this was really hard in the early "new world" colonization days, many many colonies just died off, the ones that didn't made history) then eventually "regular" people will be able to go. One can assume that human nature won't change over the next 500 years, and you'll have the same kind of gov'ts you have today. Local leaders under a higher level state/country leader. etc

There seem to be a few unaddressed assumptions here. Who is Mars industrializing for? What resources would Mars ever have to justify battling through two gravity wells to acquire?

There's nothing about Mars or early colonies that make inequality any more or less palatable than on Earth. Without severe intervention, inequality would be reinforced by the powerful elites hoping to exploit Mars and Martians.

There's really nothing inherent to democracy that would make a colony more or less successful. In the face of a harsh planet, having an individual leader or at least a small cadre of elites making on the fly decisions might be seen as more welcome in comparison to weeks long deliberations that would come about from direct democracy.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it formed like it did in the Expanse series

I suspect we will initially see cooperate government (all hail administrator musk), but since mars is so open, I suspect once things get rolling a bit, we will see lots of different groups try lots of different types of government in different locations.

Maybe we will learn in a scientific way which methods of governments are better. haha who am I kidding, we will blame the other regions of mars with governments we dislike for a particular region's failings, just as we do here.

King Elon will appoint a Head Freespeech Master for each Freespeech District on the planet.

Important note: Elon can terminate any Citizens air credits if their speech is too free, or the wrong kind of free.

Have you analyzed what "war" is? It is significant that you're analyzing a life or death situation. Politics do not matter in that kind of place, and everyone is going to need to be on the same page about sustaining life or their life will not be sustained!

Not sure what will happen, but a few key turning points are:

Transition from cafeteria food service to individuals purchasing and making their own food to eat.

Ability to own your own personal space. (aside: I'm a native English speaker and still had to check if 'own your own' was a correct usage ...)

As implied in the above, the transition from a command or para-military economy (which is a version of 'from each according to ability, to each according to need') to a monetary economy.

Some very interesting fiction could be set in a mars colony that has reached *enough* population to begin these transitions.

Who will be the first homeowner on mars? Who will have the first hot-dog stand?

On a large ship in the US Navy, eating is cafeteria and housing is assigned, but there are vending machines (and other stores) that use cash. So my guess is that that is how the transition from command economy to cash economy will begin, with the introduction of pay which can be used for luxury or supplemental items.

Yeah if you think it's not going to be an immediate authoritarian society you are out of your gourd.

On earth if you don't like your overlords you have other options, at some point. On mars it's a bit chilly without whoever keeps you sheltered. Good luck.

It won’t, it’s a distracting fantasy that we can colonize anywhere when all we can create is by war and slavery here on Earth. Without instituting the Hydrogen Economy we will go extinct right here on Earth as evolutionary failures.

[removed]

I've seen this television documentary show before, it was on Amazon Prime.

Mickeys

No no no. You have the wrong phrasing. You can have all the free speech you like as long as Elon doesn't notice it oppressing others. Because he is the one checking he might only notice when it happens to him and people/things he likes.

This is dead on. Eve. If we are in the post scarcity economy here. And that's a big if. Everything will have to be brought there and it will make it take a very long time to catch up.

i wonder if martians would go with the own food production path. personal space is a must, but considering the resources used to build and maintain a single user kitchen one would consider that it would be better for comunal kitchens to be the norm.

but it mostly depends on the experiences of martian citizens and the result of their social experiments. if they assign a single user kitchen as a sign of success then you are right on the money in that evaluation, but if they assign success to a well maintained and luxurious comunal kitchen then things could be different. it mostly depends on what martians will consider their culture.

It would be a chance to eliminate religious dogma from policy, since the first inhabitants will be scientists, engineers, and other techies.