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poli_trial t1_j1qt4zs wrote

>I would argue there is no way to accurately predict the future of our world over that long of a timescale. If you'd asked people in 1022 what the future would have looked like, they would not have predicted machines that do labor much less the European discovery of the Americas, which means no Colubian exchange (horses and diseases in the new world, tobacco, tomatoes, blueberries, potatoes and a massive influx of gold and silver).

OK, true but the difference is that back then people didn't have knowledge of the fact that a separate continent existed to which they could travel and powered mechanization wasn't yet imagined. Conversely, today we do know that Mars has water on in and that makes it possible for us to imagine living on it (even if never get there) and since we know nuclear fusion & fission is possible but just something we've yet to harness, we can imagine a world of abundant and nearly free energy. Of course, it's self-evident that no one can accurately predict the future but I'd argue the OP just asked for opinions and people's imaginations. IMO, it's a question worth pursuing so that we can collectively begin to consider if we want to go those directions or not. We have a lot more knowledge now to predict the course of human kind than people did in 1022, we should use it!

>If you look at the changes of the 20th century alone, humanity went from no heavier than air travel to landing on the moon in the span of 60 years. Major political upheavals rewrote the map of the majority of world, from the treaties at the end of WW1 that carved up the middle east to the post WW2 cold War realities of nation states and spheres of influence to the advent of nuclear arms fundamentally changing the reality of international conflict. And all of that was just 100 years.

And yes, again, it'd be hard to predict political events and the details of how anything will play out. There's a lot of random chance involved. At the same time, 100 years ago you could have reasonably made the prediction that the US would become the preeminent global power and today it's also possible to make such predictions about China based on how sustainable you think their economic and political model is.

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