Avery_Thorn t1_j2dvck7 wrote
2030 is in 7 years, people. 7 years.
Massive shifts are not going to happen, or more importantly, unlikely to be forseen.
For example, gas. I think we all know what is going to happen with gas: first, it will become cheaper, as demand falls due to electrical vehicles, but the oil companies will continue to produce using existing refineries, which will slightly oversupply the market, bringing prices down a bit. The oil companies will also do this to reduce the switch to electric vehicles.
However, at some point, the refinery plants will start deteriorating, and will either become uneconomical to run or require significant reinvestment, which the oil companies will not do, which will re-constrain the availability of gas, which will drive prices up, until eventually gas will be in such low demand that it is primarily a curiosity, not easily available, and it will mostly be the domain of hobbyists for operating antique vehicles for parades and joy rides, not actual transportation. (I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of hobbyists convert their gas vehicles to run on ethanol, which will be much easier and cheaper to get.)
At that point, most vehicles used for day-to-day transportation will be electrical; potentially with hydrogen also thrown into the mix.
But there is no way this happens by 2030. By 2030, in the USA, most vehicles on the road will still be gas. You might start seeing gas prices softening a bit more than normal by then as demand falls, but probably just the beginnings of it.
About the only thing that I know of... there is a good chance that by 2030, the Cavendish banana will be functionally extinct as the primary banana cultivar. You will be able to buy "a banana", probably for about the same price as currently, but it won't be a Cavendish banana, it will likely be a Goldfinger Banana or a different cultivar. Getting a Cavendish banana will be expensive, to the point where the humor in the phrase "It's a banana Michael, how much could it cost, $10?" would be lost.
halbritt t1_j2dxsjz wrote
>2030 is in 7 years, people. 7 years.
>
>Massive shifts are not going to happen, or more importantly, unlikely to be forseen.
Many people are suggesting that China will implode within that timeframe and cease to be a nation that manufactures and exports goods cheaply, which is likely to have a huge impact to cost of living in the US.
Outside of China, there are other countries facing a similar population implosion, but are maybe not carrying so much debt. Regardless, it may be difficult to continue importing cheap semiconductors from places like South Korea, which may have a significant impact on the cost of computing devices to which we've all become accustomed to using.
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