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PR7ME t1_ixpjqfw wrote

Assuming it has a half decent load, the main buyers of this will be city construction groups / regular city deliveries.

The only way as a business to 'justify' this expense is the saving from air pollution charges.

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zenithtreader t1_ixpot1o wrote

Err no. Wholesale electricity only costs a fraction of wholesale diesel or gas right now for the same mileages. Further more electrical drivetrains having much less moving parts and therefore require much less maintenance as well. And these two things will cost multiple trucks worth of money over its operating lifetime.

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PR7ME t1_ixps0tw wrote

Current prices in Europe, no.

Electricity is more expensive. When we've seem gas prices which are the equipment of $500/barrel of oil, I highly doubt it'll be cheaper to run.

Secondly charging at 43kW/250kW is very expensive, becuase the cost of infrastructure is expensive and needs to be paid off too. The unit price of electricity is only one factor.

Don't get me wrong, these trucks will sell, but not on pure business and economic basis.

I'm no EV hater, I have had one for years, I just like to look at the numbers as well.

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anschutz_shooter t1_ixq0x2i wrote

> Secondly charging at 43kW/250kW is very expensive, becuase the cost of infrastructure is expensive and needs to be paid off too. The unit price of electricity is only one factor. > > Don't get me wrong, these trucks will sell, but not on pure business and economic basis.

In reality though, almost nobody needs 250kW charging.

The average HGV will spend 9+hours charging overnight. It'll trundle from a warehouse to a supermarket (and back), possibly trickle-charging at both ends. It'll do maybe 4-5 round trips in the day, all of which could be covered by a single charge, but it'll probably get a bit of topping-up whilst material is unloaded.

There will be a handful of people doing London-Scotland trips who need a quick charge halfway, but that's not the duty-cycle most trucks work on.

It may also do some "light" journeys. For instance trailers to the Isle of Man generally get dropped off at Heysham, loaded by port tractors and forwarded by a local haulier on the island. So a Tesco tractor unit will take a loaded trailer to Heysham and either return to the warehouse unladen, or with an empty trailer - which will not tax the range too much.

Obviously they'll be a no-brainer for any sort of urban delivery where ULEZ or Congestion charging exists.

And we're assuming that diesel costs don't rise further/get taxed, or that electricity doesn't come down significantly (probably will, especially if they change how the wholesale market works, which they need to and will happen eventually).

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PR7ME t1_ixq2lqp wrote

Out of curiosity, what do you think a single 43kW goes for?

And how many do you think a single depot would need?

Lastly what's the kWh rate you expect businesses to be paying overnight?

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Surur t1_ixpx6tx wrote

> When we've seem gas prices which are the equipment of $500/barrel of oil, I highly doubt it'll be cheaper to run.

Solar + batteries provide a natural price cap.

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MarmonRzohr t1_ixpnjgn wrote

There is a pretty good video by Engineering Explained where he does a reality check on the Tesla Semi - the principles apply to any electric truck:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU

Essentially the running cost advantage is likely going to be very significant. How large depends on the prices of industrial electricity.

Renault's battery capacities and range estimates are much more conservative than Tesla's claimed specs, but the advantage of electric on the "short" distances Renault is targeting is very clear.

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PR7ME t1_ixps7rh wrote

Yes. I've seen the video. One thing that isn't factored in is everyday use, charging infrastructure is expansive, that's completely discounted in the video.

Renault is a European brand, which predominantly operates in Europe, and right now, we've got the highest electricity prices in the world.

The video might be more true for the US, but it doesn't factor European prices right now.

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MarmonRzohr t1_ixpuqmq wrote

>charging infrastructure is expensive

That does change the ROI time frames vs. buying just the trucks, but anyone buying electric trucks at this time is going to be buying both anyway. Charging infrastructure also pays out really fast given the upkeep cost is close to zero.

>but it doesn't factor European prices right now

Even with electricity prices which are higher the math works out. Prices in 2022 have been between 20% and 200% higher than the price quoted in the video (except Finland, which has lower prices in the 2022 Eurostat figures), and even with that kind of increase there are still very sizeable savings. And that is without calculating the difference in fuel cost.

For example, right now, in France the cost of diesel is 7.435 $/gallon(US) which is 77% higher than the diesel price used by EE.

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tomtttttttttttt t1_ixpkhm4 wrote

Electricity is a lot cheaper than diesel, especially in Europe and especially if you can hook up solar panels at your depot or a wind tubine shared by an industrial estate kind of thing.

Can't see a price for this compared to a standard diesel cab but somewhere there will come a break even point.

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