Submitted by izumi3682 t3_z2jqwa in Futurology
Tinchotesk t1_ixhhr3d wrote
Reply to comment by izumi3682 in How to test if we’re living in a computer simulation by izumi3682
> extrapolate how that technology will derive even ten years from now
Extrapolating exponential growth from a short sample of exponentially-looking growth is incredibly naive. First, because we have well established examples of how progress stagnates after an initial crazy period (compare the first 50 years of aviation with the next 70, or the first 12 years of space exploration compared with the next 53). Second, because the logistic problem exists; as described by the logistic equation, the (always) limited supply of resources quickly changes exponential growth into a plateau.
izumi3682 OP t1_ixhree2 wrote
Not such a short sample. It has been going on like this now for all of recorded human history. Nay, all of Homo Sapiens history. And in the last thousand years things beyond belief have occurred. Especially in the last 100 years alone. I took the time once to put it all together and the conclusions that I drew from it.
BTW what is your estimated time frame for the advent of the "technological singularity"? Either human friendly (we merge our minds with it) or human unfriendly (it stays external from out minds). "It" being computing and computing derived AI.
Consider this. It's not about predicting the future. It is the way the universe (our portion of the multiverse), works.
izumi3682 OP t1_ixj15vc wrote
Why is this comment downvoted? What do you disagree with in this comment? Two downvotes but no replies.
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