Global auto sales are down 8%, yet EV sales (hybrid and BEV) are up 62%. Have we finally seen a peak in ICE?

The following submission statement was provided by /u/ElectrikDonuts:

Global auto sales are down 8%, yet EV sales (hybrid and BEV) are up 62%. Have we finally seen a peak in ICE?

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yxv7q9/global_electric_vehicle_sales_up_62_overall_auto/iwqmoxo/

I would doubt that we've seen the peak in ice yet because there's still so many people in developing nations that probably still want the cheapest cars they can get and lack of charging stations and robust grids won't help.

It's possible but probably not in a good way so much as it would mean an extended global recession where only the wealthier people can afford cars... And then that period lasted long enough that the cost for EVS falls below the cost of internal combustion engines globally which then would be certainly the decline of ICE.

• Ford says it will produce more than 2 million EVs annually by 2026 and projects that EVs will be half of its global sales volume by 2030

• Volvo announced plans to be EV only by 2030.

• Mini already sells an electric version of the Mini Cooper. BMW has confirmed plans to make the brand all-electric by 2030.

• Audi has pledged to go electric by 2033. They will launch their last new internal combustion car in 2026.

• General Motors outlined a plan that would see the company and its Chevrolet, GMC and Buick brands eliminate combustion-powered vehicles by 2035.

Several major automobile companies are shifting away from ICE.

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Planning to build and being able to build - two very very different processes.

Who's actually ready? Ford? Tesla? VW? Hyundai? I'd say that's it.

Global car sales have definitely peaked, and this was well before the pandemic.

On top of that the biggest car market is China, and they have gone 30% EV. I would say ICE has definitely peaked, so any company which is not committed to EVs (e.g. Toyota, Stellantis) are going to go bankrupt in the near future.

GM is surprisingly ready as well. Though they have had little to no hype except for the electric Hummer.

Tesla, , Rivan, Polestar, Lucid Motors NIO, etc are car manufacturers who exclusively make EVs and already have cars for sale.

Traditional automakers also have numerous cars available now:

• Audi has 3 separate EV models: RS GT e-tron, A4 e-tron, and the e-tron.

• BMW has 3 separate EV models: i4, iX, i7 for sale now.

• Ford has 3 separate EV models: E -Transit Cargo, Mach E, and F150 lightening.

• GM has 7 separate EV models: Hummer, lyriq, Bolt, Silverado EV, Blazer EV, Equinox EV

I will stop there for the sake of brevity Honda, Hyundai, KIA, Mazda, Mercedes, Mini, Nissan, Porches, Volvo, etc all have EV models.

GM already has 7 EVs in the market.

> Have we finally seen a peak in ICE?

Yes, we've seen it in 2017.

There is a difference between making a few EVs and being able to mass-produce them, particularly if they are unprofitable and your ICE car sales are in freefall.

I hear you, but actually producing is a big deal.

14K Rivians

15K GMs

128K BMWs

336K VWs (Audi and Porsche fall under VW)

135K Hyundai/Kia

28K Fords

365K Teslas

Those are reported 3rd quarter YTD BEV numbers. I did miss BMW (those minis :) and gave Ford way too much credit. Everyone other than the highlighted 4 are struggling for production. As noted by someone: 'Production is hard'.

Tesla sells over 300k cars per year. NIo sold 250k last year.GM sells 20k of just the Chevy Bolt per year. Ford sold 20k of the Mach E.

Define "mass-produced".

I hope we can agree # of brands is a meaningless #. It's about what can you deliver/produce?

If you can produce a few thousand (or even 10K) of a brand, is that really production? Or just compliance cars so you don't have to pay credits to Tesla and other EV companies?

A reminder, Rivian has produced 14K YTD. GM has produced just over 15K YTD. That's the real measuring tape - yeah?

Cumulatively that's about a million cars just last year. Considering cumulatively only 52k EVs were sold per year 10yrs ago a million is enormous progress in a very short period. That million also left out Polestar/Volvo, Mazda, Mercedes, Honda, Nissan, and others who also produce EVs.

> Tesla sells over 300k cars per year.

I mean, you are technically correct.

Tesla sold 935,000 cars in 2021 and is on track for around 1.3 million in 2022.

Note BMW only sold 2.2 million cars in 2021.

I would define a million per year as definitely mass production. I think less than 100K is definitely not.

>Global EV sales reached a record-high of 6.9 million in 2021. https://theicct.org/publication/global-ev-update-2021-jun22/#:~:text=Global%20EV%20sales%20reached%20a,%2Dduty%20vehicles%20(HDVs).

All those other EVs maybe add up to a 10 to 20K total. Again mostly compliance vehicles.

Agreed on the movement of EVs. We're about to hit the S curve of EVs. And who's in great position vs. who's not. The ones who are not in position, only the highlighted + Ford are ready. The rest, I'm sorry just aren't going to be there.

And?

Please go deeper into what made up those 6.9 million. I'll spoil it for you. Most likely 4-5 million plus were golf cart sized cars in China. Only about 2 to 2.5 million were real vehicles(being generous). And again a lot if not most of those were produced in China. Only 1+ million were produced outside of China.

But what's your point?

>Only 1+ million were produced outside of China.

Tela alone sells a million cars per year.

My point is that production has been dramatically scaled up.

Most of Tesla cars are built in China...

Other than the ones I highlighted elsewhere in this thread, the rest are in real trouble.

Double what tesla has and like 1/4th of the sales, if that. Number of models doesn’t matter. If anything its just a distraction when EV are battery supply limited

Tesla is growing so fast ppl can barely keep up with how much the make to the same significant digit

Its good to see VW taking the bull by the horns. I was very skeptical. I assume those are most European eco cars and better, not $4000 Chinese GM golf carts

Yep that is the real big change here.

Population goes up while sales go down for 5 consecutive years now. Realistically we are never going back to 2017 rates. There is a generational change happening.

Previously many people assumed that China and it's neighbours would as they grew richer eventually follow the Western model but that simply isnt happening. Then in Europe rates are falling rapidly, especially in urban areas.

Realistically many people in developing nations as they become wealthier will invest in small electric vehicles, even including eBikes.

Once the wealthy start buying new electric cars, the supply of cheap second hand ICEs starts to dry up. China, South Africa, India etc. are not going to follow the US, they will take a different path. Eventually they will converge with European countries which are seeing falling ownership rates, especially in urban areas.

Absolutely. New ICE sales returning to 2017 levels is impossible at this point.

The question is whether combined ICE plus EV sales will ever reach 2017 levels again. I can't make up my mind if that will even happen or not. Currently I think it wont. EVs wont replace ICEs at a 1to1 ratio. We are definitely not seeing that currently.

ICE peaked in 2017

> Have we finally seen a peak in ICE?

Here's another data source showing ICE sales peaked 5 years ago:
> "The acceleration in EV adoption means that combustion vehicle sales peaked globally in 2017 and are now in permanent decline. By 2025 passenger ICE sales are 19% below their 2017 peak."

That’s not a graph of sales

You understand -ve growth means sales are going down, right?

Correct. They're German made ID series vehicles, and they're quite good.

>GM has 7 separate EV models

Not quite. Hummer, Bolt, and Bolt EUV are the only ones on the market.