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UniversalMomentum t1_iwqt581 wrote

I would doubt that we've seen the peak in ice yet because there's still so many people in developing nations that probably still want the cheapest cars they can get and lack of charging stations and robust grids won't help.

It's possible but probably not in a good way so much as it would mean an extended global recession where only the wealthier people can afford cars... And then that period lasted long enough that the cost for EVS falls below the cost of internal combustion engines globally which then would be certainly the decline of ICE.

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oiseauvert989 t1_iwsi93k wrote

Realistically many people in developing nations as they become wealthier will invest in small electric vehicles, even including eBikes.

Once the wealthy start buying new electric cars, the supply of cheap second hand ICEs starts to dry up. China, South Africa, India etc. are not going to follow the US, they will take a different path. Eventually they will converge with European countries which are seeing falling ownership rates, especially in urban areas.

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