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shirk-work t1_iuzv5ie wrote

Reply to comment by ISiupick in ‘Carbon timebomb’: climate crisis threatens to destroy Congo peatlands by sector3011

I mean I don't think humanity is going to go extinct but I do believe the population will drop by 2 or 3 billion mainly in poor areas and those most deeply affected by climate change. If your living in a wealthy county with a decent climate or even a climate that may become more arable it'll be on par with the great depression for instance. If your in a second or third world country already prone to droughts or floods then yeah then maybe it isn't as great of an idea. If you're highly educated, have good finances your the person we most want to have children but is simultaneously the least likely.

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ISiupick t1_iuzvtmn wrote

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not talking about extinction. Those 2-3 bln climate refugees you mentioned - they're not going to just keel over and die. They'll have to go somewhere and we're going to have a few wars about it. Russia is already flying migrants in and sending them on their merry way to Europe, basically using them to drain resources and fuel anti-migrant sentiment. In the meantime we ourselves will have to deal with droughts and scorching hot weather with all that other shit going on.

Just thinking about it stresses me out, I don't want my kid living through it.

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shirk-work t1_iuzwyyc wrote

The universe has always been against us. We just got lazy the last hundred years or so. Complacent with a very unusually comfortable situation. There's definitely going to be tensions, war, famine, and so on but that's been the norm for humanity more so than the current situation. we've been through worse multiple times. Check out the worst year ever. Dang most of the time you wouldn't expect all of your kids to make it to adulthood yet here we all are. It's not about life being tough it's about giving it a big fat middle finger and existing anyways.

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ISiupick t1_iv0691j wrote

I have to disagree on the universe thing - the universe keeps trucking along, whether we exist or not. I do have to agree on the fact that we have to give it the middle finger and exist anyway. Thing is, we've been against ourselves this whole time.

Wars, famines and especially climate change are mostly man made. Oil companies have known the consequences of burning fossil fuels for at least 40 years and not only did they not help, they actively hid the research and kept fucking us over. The war in Ukraine, as an example, can be blamed on one man, yet millions suffer.

Just to put a bow on this discussion - "save the planet" seems like such a stupid idea. Earth became a thing 4 bln years ago, humanity is all but a blip in it's history. We should focus on saving ourselves.

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CagedBeast3750 t1_iv0hztd wrote

But that is and always has been our nature. In the big picture, "man made" is natural. It doesn't really counter his point - its how we exist, and probably won't change until we're gone. Who knows maybe when the floods come a few will survive and we'll take our game of thrones novels, add some morality lessons, and call it the new testament.

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sotek2345 t1_iv0l9v1 wrote

On the flip side, one person not existing makes it easier for the rest of the species (less resource use, no carbon emissions, etc.) Spending too much time thinking about this lately. Probably not healthy.

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MeSpikey t1_iv0xkpa wrote

Definitely not healthy but very understandable.

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Gemini884 t1_iv22z1r wrote

Where did you read that there will be more than a billion(upper end estimate) refugees?
Read IPCC report on impacts instead of speculating-
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/

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ISiupick t1_iv2floh wrote

I was taking about the 2-3 bln people the previous comment mentioned. By no means its an accurate number

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Blekanly t1_iv0jbfl wrote

Tbf the population is dropping in the west, Japan, China is about to be hit hard.

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HeartoftheHive t1_iuzvtt7 wrote

I don't think you grasp how well and truly fucked humanity will be on the whole once shit starts cascading out of control.

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shirk-work t1_iuzwols wrote

Definitely for a time but I don't think this is a society collapsing situation. It's too slow. If we want to set up a whole bunch of modified algae making essentially Soylent then we can. We choose not to because there's no need for that now. Food is the key issue, humans can figure out where now is the best area to build and avoid natural disasters. Maybe if the atmospheric oxygen drops drastically then yeah most things will die and humans will build underground cities. Maybe 100 million to 2 billion will hold on and emerge. I think we will likely attempt some drastic geoengineering first which will buy time. There will be some extreme military states to deal with to situation while maintaining order. The value of a human life will drop for a while. Tbh that's been more so the norm than the current situation.

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Fortnut_On_Me_Daddy t1_iv015xz wrote

Honestly I bet nuclear apocalypse occurs before any of that. I'm thinking the climate crisis will set off wars that won't end well for anybody.

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shirk-work t1_iv04v7z wrote

Now that's fast enough and possibly devastating enough to wipe us out. Seems like an odd choice then again people will all rush an exit during a fire essentially ensuring nearly everyone burns.

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Fortnut_On_Me_Daddy t1_iv1f6kb wrote

It does seem like an odd choice, but so does carrying nuclear armaments because everyone else has them. I don't think the collapse of modern civilization wouldn't lead to nuclear war as countries escalate violence to try and fend other countries off of their resources. Not to mention the countless armaments that would likely fall out of governmental hands across the globe.

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shirk-work t1_iv1ie5j wrote

I guess nuking someone who can't nuke you back and no global economy to punish you is more likely. Nuking someone who can and will return the favor seems like a zero sum game

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HeartoftheHive t1_iv0213d wrote

> It's too slow.

That's an assumption right there. As I said, there are a lot of things that are currently at a tipping point. You don't see imminent disaster once they all start toppling? Water is already starting to become a huge issue and that effects everything, obviously including our food supplies. And this is before the real big dominoes start falling.

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shirk-work t1_iv04kvn wrote

I mean we have solutions. Modular nuclear desalination to get as much water as we want. Right now building takes time because a lot of red tape but if we were in a rush a lot of solutions could be deployed within a much shorter timeframe. Once again this isn't to say it's not going to be a shit show and there will be large scale geo engineering not to fix the problem but to buy time.

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HeartoftheHive t1_iv05c6f wrote

I don't have any hope that the governments of the world will spare a dime to do more than the bare minimum. They could and should be doing so much more and they simply won't. The signs are obvious and they continue to stick their collective fingers in their ears, saying "tralala" and refusing to do anything more.

I'll be surprised if the world isn't on the way to a Fallout type scenario just from climate change alone when I'm on my death bed.

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sotek2345 t1_iv0ljfu wrote

As a whole, we can't think beyond the next quarterly earnings statement. The environment won't collapse in 3 months, we will just boil slowly if we don't nuke ourselves over resources.

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HeartoftheHive t1_iv0oncq wrote

I won't say as a whole, but those that are already on top of the corporate pile will do anything and everything to stay at the top. Even if it means burning the Earth in the process.

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