TheLastSamurai OP t1_it68lrg wrote on October 21, 2022 at 6:05 AM

Summary

We expect that there will be substantial progress in AI in the next few decades, potentially even to the point where machines come to outperform humans in many, if not all, tasks. This could have enormous benefits, helping to solve currently intractable global problems, but could also pose severe risks. These risks could arise accidentally (for example, if we don’t find technical solutions to concerns about the safety of AI systems), or deliberately (for example, if AI systems worsen geopolitical conflict). We think more work needs to be done to reduce these risks.

Some of these risks from advanced AI could be existential — meaning they could cause human extinction, or an equally permanent and severe disempowerment of humanity.2 There have not yet been any satisfying answers to concerns — discussed below — about how this rapidly approaching, transformative technology can be safely developed and integrated into our society. Finding answers to these concerns is very neglected, and may well be tractable. We estimate that there are around 300 people worldwide working directly on this.3 As a result, the possibility of AI-related catastrophe may be the world’s most pressing problem — and the best thing to work on for those who are well-placed to contribute....

artix111 t1_it6osyf wrote on October 21, 2022 at 9:49 AM

I am pretty sure it will be revolutionary in this decade already and that things will change faster than we can comprehend.

Endward22 t1_itcy4vs wrote on October 22, 2022 at 6:12 PM

I don't see why everyone always assumes that a potential AI wants to kill us.

I rather think that the AI is just so far in the future that we can't imagine it.

TheLastSamurai OP t1_ited1ji wrote on October 23, 2022 at 12:23 AM

You should read the article. Some very smart people but the chance at 10%, also look at AI scaling, it follows the concept of exponential growth, it will explode in capabilities so fast once it gets going.